罗马尼亚的通胀问题：为何去通胀如此艰难

关键论点

• 整体通胀回落高估了改善，因有利基数效应贡献颇大；CORE2仍为6.2%。
• 能源、税收和管制价格冲击接连重叠，在工资、租金、服务和短期预期上留下持久印记。
• 服务业通胀11.1%表明持续性已转移至无法通过进口化解的国内定价。
• 央行并非被动而是受限：增长接近零、供给冲击对加息不敏感，因而依赖财政拖累和疲弱消费。

对应原文证据

1. Yet underlying inflation remains stubbornly high relative to both the rest of Europe and the National Bank of Romania’s (NBR) target.
2. While the country is still undergoing some income and price level convergence with the euro area – making a modest inflation differential structurally normal – that benign catch-up has been overwhelmed by much stronger forces.
3. Before those effects could wash through wages and contracts, a new energy shock emerged in 2026. · 2026