Amundi expects France's GDP to grow modestly at 0.6% in 2026 and around 1.0% in 2027, with inflation easing to 1.7% by Q4 2027. The fiscal position is under scrutiny, with debt at 118% of GDP and a deficit of 5.1%. The 2027 budget is pivotal; credible…
The dollar is struggling to hold gains despite hawkish Fed expectations, with long-end Treasury yields and the debasement trade weighing on it. However, ING expects hawkish Fed repricing to support USD this week, with DXY potentially reclaiming 100.0. EUR/USD…
Saxo Bank reports renewed US-Iran hostilities lifting crude above $91, while global bond yields spike with the US 10-year topping 4.75% for the first time in 19 months. Equities decline amid inflation concerns, crypto equities rebound, and gold steadies after…
ING Think's report re-examines Europe's productivity gap with the US, arguing that the gap is concentrated in the digital sector, that policy reforms could yield larger gains in Europe, that institutional improvements since the euro crisis have strengthened…
Commonwealth Bank forecasts a deeper and broader Australian housing downturn, with national dwelling prices expected to fall around 9% from peak to trough. The correction has spread to Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, with sharper declines in Sydney and…
Westpac reports a 3.6% month-on-month decline in total Australian dwelling approvals for July, with the annual pace easing to 9.0%yr. Weakness was driven by a 4.2%mth fall in private detached dwelling approvals, while private unit approvals edged down 0.4%mth…
Westpac reports that Australian dwelling prices fell 0.9% in August, deepening the correction with annual growth slowing to 2.7% and prices now 3.6% below the March peak. Declines are widespread, affecting 93% of capital city suburbs, with Sydney and…
Saxo Bank's report 'Mapping the energy sector' advises investors to treat energy as a multi-faceted opportunity rather than a single trade. It highlights geopolitical risks (Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz) that could push oil prices higher despite…
OCBC's Daily Treasury Outlook covers market reactions to renewed US-Iran hostilities, which lifted oil prices and weighed on US equities, while global data showed India's strong GDP growth, China's PMI improving but still in contraction, and Japan's retail…
Natixis assesses the US dual mandate in August 2026, noting a clear cooling in the labor market with July nonfarm payrolls at -23k and unemployment at 4.1%, while inflation is easing gradually with headline CPI at 0.07% m/m and core at 0.22% m/m. The Fed is…
Focus France Macro Based on information available up to 31 August 2026 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication. Towards the elections: fiscal and political risks France will return to the polls in the spring of 2027…
Westpac's latest Economic Overview indicates a recovering New Zealand economy following a pause during the Iran war, with growth expected to strengthen and broaden beyond the external sector. Persistent high inflation has shifted the RBNZ to a tightening…
OCBC Research's Weekly Research Views covers macro, geopolitical, and credit developments, highlighting a hawkish Fed, US-Iran conflict, and resilient Asia growth. Key forecasts include RBA hike, BNM hold, BoT normalization, BSP hikes, and Singapore/HK growth…
ING expects US 10-year yields to rise toward 4.75%-5% due to real rate pressures, while front-end rates remain sticky unless weak payrolls intervene; eurozone rates face upside risks from inflation surprises; oil is the key short-term driver of rates.
UBS CIO expects limited near-term oil market impact from the US-Venezuela deal despite its strategic significance, maintains Brent at USD 85/bbl for Dec 2026 with upside risks, favors broad commodities, keeps Neutral on US energy equities, sees Fed rate hike…
UBS CIO expects the Fed to keep rates on hold despite hawkish signals from Chair Warsh, favoring short- to medium-duration quality bonds.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income sees global central banks entering a more complicated phase, balancing sticky inflation, uneven growth, and regional pressures. The firm highlights a stagflationary backdrop, with the US economy resilient, Europe facing an…
Franklin Income Investors, with over 75 years of multi-asset income expertise, sees opportunities from elevated single-stock volatility and higher yields on hyperscaler debt, advocating flexibility and selectivity. CIO Ed Perks emphasizes balance,…
Invesco's analysis suggests the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh will likely keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, despite a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. The removal of forward guidance could widen outcome ranges, raise term premiums, and push…
Amundi's report discusses the resilient global growth and inflation above target six months into the Iran conflict, with equities benefiting from AI-driven earnings and bonds pressured by fiscal concerns. The report emphasizes diversification and selectivity…