Super El Niño is not kidding around

Key arguments

• Pacific South America faces flooding and fisheries disruption; Central America and northern South America face drought and heat; the south may gain rainfall despite flood risk.
• Peru is the most exposed LatAm economy, combining Pacific coastal exposure with heavy dependence on fishing and agriculture.
• Colombia is also highly exposed: drought hits agriculture and hydropower, turning the climate shock into energy and food inflation.
• Brazil and Chile carry ambiguous aggregate impacts given heterogeneous regional effects; Mexico's growth impact is ambiguous to positive with mixed inflation.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Overall, Peru emerges as the most exposed economy across Latin America combining direct Pacific coastal exposure with heavy dependence on exposed industries (notably fishing and agriculture), while Colombia is also highly exposed with drought affecting both agricultural output and energy production, and its hydropower dependence is likely to turn the climate shock into energy and food inflation.
2. NOAA assigns agreater than 83% chance that the event will remain strong to very strong through January-March 2027. · March 2027
3. NOAA also estimates up to an 83% chance that the event becomes historic during October – December, meaning itwould exceed the strength of all previous El Niño events inrecords dating back to 1950 3 .