Higher energy costs and primary income outflows deepen polands current account gap

中文标题

能源成本上升与初级收入外流加深波兰经常账户缺口

ING THINK10/14/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Poland's August current account deficit widened to €3.6bn, exceeding ING's €2.1bn estimate and July's €1.9bn, driven by a larger goods deficit and primary income outflows. Energy imports, AI-related equipment purchases and likely military deliveries from South Korea and the US boosted imports, offsetting 13.2% export growth. ING expects the deficit to reach 1.5% of GDP in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, but sees limited impact on the zloty.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 10/14/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: 2027

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

The current account deficit widened sharply in August to €3.6bn, driven by a larger goods trade deficit and a deterioration in primary income.
Imports rose on higher energy commodity prices, AI-related computer equipment purchases, and likely military deliveries from South Korea (K2 tanks) and the US (F-35A aircraft).
Energy commodity prices are expected to stay elevated for longer due to Middle East shipping disruptions, the Yemen civil war, Bab-el-Mandeb threats and rising crude freight costs.
Despite the anticipated deterioration, Poland's external imbalance remains low and has only a limited impact on the zloty.

Key numbers

August current account deficit: €3.6bn
Goods trade deficit: €3.0bn
Primary income deficit: €3.8bn
Export growth YoY: 13.2%
Import growth YoY: 15.4%

Main risks

Prolonged stalemate or further escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine could shift market expectations towards a more persistent energy price shock.
Higher energy commodity prices and elevated freight costs could keep Poland's import bill elevated, further widening the current account deficit.
The current account deficit could widen more than expected, reaching 1.9% of GDP in 2027, potentially affecting the zloty.

Corresponding source evidence

Crude oil imports rose sharply, reflecting both higher prices and larger volumes, as did imports of durable consumer goods, most likely supplied by Chinese manufacturers.
In our latest macroeconomic forecast update, we expect the current account deficit to reach 1.5% of GDP this year and widen further to 1.9% of GDP in 2027, compared with 1.0% of GDP in 2025. · 2027

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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