Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
ING outlines three outcomes for the 3 November US midterms, where Democrats lead polls by roughly eight points. A Republican sweep would push the 10yr yield above 5.5% and the 2yr near 5%, boosting the dollar on looser fiscal, tighter Fed policy. A split…
France's draft 2027 budget targets a deficit of 5% of GDP, requiring €43bn of new measures. ING expects adoption via Article 49.3, possibly with diluting concessions. Even fully implemented, the adjustment would only slow deterioration: debt is projected at…
One-day volatility rose about a third to 14.11 while the one-year measure barely moved, so the curve repriced a window rather than a view. September headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%. Equities sold the print, with the S&P 500 down 1.11% and the…
Natixis analysts warn that French banks, despite strong credit fundamentals, remain structurally exposed to sovereign risk ahead of the 2027 presidential election. They cut France's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and see the public deficit at -5.4% of GDP…
US September headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, above OCBC's 0.5% call, while core matched at 0.3% MoM; headline reached 3.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY. Motor fuel rose 9.3% MoM and contributed 0.36ppt, over half the monthly increase. Shelter added 0.14ppt; recreation…
Australian employment fell 39,300 in September, far below the expected 20,000 gain, led by a 73,700 drop in part-time work while full-time jobs rose 34,400. Unemployment stayed at 4.7% and participation slipped to 66.8%. CBA still expects the RBA to hold…
ING outlines three scenarios in which inflation proves more problematic than expected, driven by a worsening energy picture, AI bottlenecks and a stronger-than-expected jobs market. The note traces implications for central banks and markets but supplies no…
The report expects the Fed to hold in October and hike 25bp in December, with no further tightening in 2027 despite market pricing of 50bp. The ECB is seen hiking in December, not October, though surging German yields already deliver tightening equivalent to…
Persian Gulf oil flows have recovered to 70-90% of pre-war levels, yet Brent remains supported by a geopolitical risk premium and record tanker freight rates. ING holds a low-conviction 4Q26 Brent forecast of $80/bbl and FY27 forecast of $71/bbl, expecting…
France's fiscal position resembles Italy in 2011 and Greece in 2009 on debt and deficit metrics, but it is not Greece in 2010: the current account is balanced, household savings are around 18%, and the effective interest rate on the debt stock remains below…
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in August 2026, the third consecutive decline, as chemicals output dropped 1.7% from January and autos and pharma weakened since June. Computer, electronic and machinery production, partly driven by…
A hot US CPI initially lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, but both reversed sharply lower, with the 10-year yield closing below 5.10%. US equities sold off, challenging the usual dollar-risk correlation. Weak Australian jobs data and softer risk sentiment…
A hotter US September CPI (headline 3.7% from 3.4%, core 2.6% from 2.4%) first drove Treasury yields up, then reversed them below pre-CPI levels. Gold fell toward USD 4,066 before recovering to about USD 4,150 on 15 October. Technology stocks failed to rally…
A hot September US CPI briefly lifted short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, but the move reversed within hours as investors focused on a sell-off in debt issued by high-profile AI companies, notably Coreweave's 2032 bonds at 78 cents. ING reads the…
Brent trades near USD 104.70/b and WTI near USD 94.32/b as demand concerns offset Middle East geopolitical risk; the IEA now sees 2026 oil demand falling 2.6m b/d. Gold slumped over 1.3% to USD 4,105/oz after US September core CPI accelerated to 2.6% y/y,…
September US headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 34.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16bp before reversing to about 4.73%, and the 10-year fell below 5.11% as weak risk sentiment drove a haven bid.…
Middle East oil exports approached pre-war levels in September, giving markets roughly 10-15 weeks of supply cover, up from 5-10 weeks. CommBank still sees a diplomatic deal as most likely but assigns a 45% probability to limited US-Iran escalation and 15% to…
AI demand remains strong, but investors are increasingly focused on valuations, debt financing and returns. CoreWeave's bonds yielding near 15% signal credit scrutiny, though a systemic AI credit crisis is not evident. Hot September US CPI at 3.7% headline…
New Zealand's September 2026 labour force survey showed employment falling 39.3k, a material downside surprise that Westpac cautions may partly reflect residual seasonality. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.7% as labour supply outpaced demand, while the…
Australian bond issuance reached a record A$326.7 billion in the year to 12 October 2026, surpassing calendar 2024's A$324.66 billion. Domestic issuance rose 28% year-on-year in the first nine months, while Kangaroo bonds grew 16.6% to A$68.8 billion on…