GLOBAL ECONOMICSDAILY POINTS
中文标题
全球经济学 · 每日要点
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem avoided policy remarks. US bank earnings were mixed; China's exports surged 36% y/y while PBOC inflation stayed below target at 0.9%.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/14/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- Q1 2027 · 2026 · 2027 · this week
Key arguments
- BoC expected to hike 100bp, with the next move as soon as October 28 or December, taking the terminal rate to 3.25%.
- Fed expected to deliver two more hikes to 4.5%, then hold flat through the rest of 2027; that level is viewed as a restrictive overshoot to be unwound from late 2027 or 2028.
- September US CPI is treated as a placeholder, unlikely to change an FOMC that has signalled an October skip.
- China's September trade surged and the US surplus widened, while PBOC inflation outcomes remain far below target.
Key numbers
- BoC terminal rate forecast
- 3.25%
- Fed funds target rate forecast
- 4.5%
- US September CPI m/m (Scotia house estimate)
- 0.6%
- US September core CPI m/m (Scotia house estimate)
- 0.3%
- China September exports y/y (USD terms)
- 36%
Main risks
- Incoming data could shift the BoC's balance between growth, slack, and inflation before its next decision.
- The Fed's expected overshoot could be unwound sooner or later than the late-2027/2028 call.
- China's trade strength and persistent below-target inflation complicate PBOC policy expectations.
Corresponding source evidence
The terminal rate is projected to be 3.25% which is 25bps higher than previously forecast but as previously guided in presentations and client meetings.
FOMC: We’re forecasting two more rate hikes to a fed funds target rate of 4.5% including one more increase likely in December followed by one more hike in 2027Q1 and then flat at the terminal rate over the rest of 2027.
· Q1 2027Call it reinsurance on the Fed’s insurance hikes because raising the policy rate by just 25-50bps would accomplish very little in terms of the lagging effects on growth and inflation.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/14/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Westpac / Westpac IQ'Australia and NZ Weekly' | 10/18/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Macroeconomics · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027 | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | 2027 Q2 |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/14/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction