观点

CHART 1: JCI SELL-OFF EXCEEDS THE COVID-ERA DRAWDOWN Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR.

Allen pointed to the latest unemployment rate of 4.7%, asking whether conditions could be loosening - meaning more potential employees are available for employers to hire - more quickly than expected.

1 Westpac New Zealand Economics Downward revisions to 2027 outlook We have updated our New Zealand economic outlook for the next year, in particular reflecting the latest developments in the energy market and key financial variables (long-term interest rates and the exchange rate).

Having already marked down of our forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.5%yr, last week we reduced our forecast of growth in 2027 by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr.

House sales fell a further 4% in September – the seventh consecutive month of decline – to be 12% lower than a year earlier.

Meanwhile, inflows of migrants remain at modest levels, totalling around 20,000 in the year to August – about half what might be expected on average over the cycle.

Focus on New Zealand: Downward revisions to 2027 outlook.

(The RBA estimated that around 16% of businesses imposed surcharges.) Inevitably, though, some firms have lifted their prices by more than any reasonable estimate of the merchant service fee that the surcharge was meant to cover.

Petrol ‘Cost-Plus’ costs Forecast changes •A full update to our forecasts was published in our October Market Outlook on Thursday 15 October.

Of the 10 components, three rose, six fell, and one was unchanged, with the biggest drags coming from softer expectations as the net share expecting the economy toimprove over the next six months fell 4points, while the share saying now is agood time to expand dropped 5points.

The idea that long end supply may not be as high inthe near term as feared turbocharged the flattening trend that was already beginning with investors considering potential 20yr supply changes (more on this below), and inour view this isalso why longer dated swap spreads outperformed this week.

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We therefore still expect one more 25bp rate hike before year-end.

Philippines: BSP expected to hike rates by 25bp We maintain our call for Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to hike rates by 25bp on Thursday.

Korea: BoK expected to hold rates We expect the Bank of Korea to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% on Thursday.

We expect retail sales and industrial production to recover slightly to 0.6% and 5.5%, respectively.

But fixed asset investment is expected to continue contracting to -7.5% YoY ytd.

The 70-city property price data for September will also be released.

We expect no change once again, with 1- and 5-year LPR unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively.

Market consensus expects the tertiary industry index to decline 0.4% month-on-month in August.

September export growth is forecast to edge up to 20.1% YoY, while imports slow to 20.0% YoY, narrowing the trade deficit sharply to JPY111bn from a revised JPY1,112bn in August.

With the 15bp move lower in UST yield from London close the market opened about 5bp wider.

MENAP growth set for sharp rebound in 2027.

During IMF press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook, the IMF projected MENAP growth to contract by 1.3% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.6% in 2027, reflecting the uneven impact of the Middle East conflict.

GCC economies are expected to contract 4.8% in 2026 before expanding 9.1% in 2027, assuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises in Q1 2027 and energy exports recover by midyear.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.8% MoM in September, above the consensus estimates of 0.3%, with the August print revised higher to 1.3%.

The Empire State index surged to 25.5, its highest level since December 2021, supported by sharply stronger new orders.

Notably, the prices-received index increased to 40.1, its highest level since May 2025, suggesting that price pressures remain persistent in both regions.

Market Watch: For the day ahead, Malaysia will release its advance estimate of 3Q26 GDP, with consensus expecting growth to moderate to 5.1% YoY from 6.0% in 2Q26.

MSCI expects to proceed with the proposal unless the consultation identifies clear evidence of material improvements in governance and market functioning, with feedback closing on 30 April 2027 and a final decision by 30 June 2027.

• US Investment Grade spreads traded flat at 83bps, and US High Yield spreads tightened by 3bps to 321bps.

The government is set to modestly increase spending on the cost of living, though the total intervention is unlikely to meaningfully top £5bn and it's likely to be mostly billed as temporary to avoid counting against the main fiscal rule.

We expect an increase in capital spending of roughly £10bn/year, bearing in mind this is exempt from the fiscal rule dictating that the current budget must be in surplus after five years.

To rebuild headroom against that rule, we expect £5-6bn of tax hikes, likely via a higher Bank Surcharge and possibly broadening the National Insurance tax base.

Back in March, that surplus, or fiscal headroom, was projected at £24bn in 2029/30.

Debt interest costs are rising Source: Macrobond, ING *Based on the average rate in the 10 days up to 25 September, which likely represents the OBR's observation window for this budget We think that headroom will have dropped to around £10bn before any corrective action.

12 months ago, the hit to headroom was considerably smaller than had been widely expected.

Will the rise in energy prices spill into higher pay, just as it did in 2022?

Since 2010, the OBR has revised the level of earnings across its five- year forecast by an average of 1.3 percentage points in absolute terms.

There are also reasons to think the impact of lower migration projections, which some reports suggest could wipe another £7bn off headroom via lower tax revenue forecasts, could be much less than feared.

And today, import prices should come in near 8% year-on-year, the highest since summer 2022.

This could be worth a move all the way to 1.1340/50.

• Nine in 10 money managers plan to raise hedge ratios over the next three months, with none planning a reduction.

The October survey of 136 money managers, split across super funds, insurers and investment managers, found three-quarters expect their FX exposure to increase over the next quarter, while nine in ten plan to raise their hedge ratios.

Not one of the 136 respondents planned to cut their hedge ratio.

• Retail sales rose 0.8% on the month, after a revised 1.3% gain in August and above the 0.3% forecast.

Jobless claims rose 1,000 to 199,000 in the week to 10 October, just under forecast, and continuing claims fell to 1,710,000.

The FTSE 100 climbed 1.1% to around 10,840, with banks firmer after comments from the UK Chancellor that were read as making a windfall tax less likely.

• BCOM: The Bloomberg Commodity Index trades unchanged on the week but remains 35% higher year-to-date, with pockets of strength in energy and soft commodities offsetting broader losses elsewhere.

SAP is expected to publish its third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 22:05, after the Xetra close (Source: SAP investor relations, as of 15 October 2026).