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Fed minutes leaned hawkish, with most officials expecting another hike by year-end, though the probability of an October move stayed low and a 25bp December hike was largely priced. Long-dated Treasuries sold off, with 10Y and 30Y yields touching their…
MUFG stays selectively cautious on Asian FX as the US dollar firms. DXY rose around 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.3%, about 112bp above its start-of-year level. FOMC minutes showed all 19 officials backed September's 25bp hike and most saw…
August US producer prices were mixed: headline PPI rose 0.4% m/m and core 0.2% m/m, with 10bp upward revisions to July. Wholesaler margins received climbed 4.5% y/y, above the 2010-2019 range that prevailed alongside 2% inflation. Using today's PPI detail,…
Oil rose 2% on reports the US could resume strikes on Iran before mid-term elections, with Brent above $102.30/bbl and WTI near $90/bbl. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf increased, and a tanker was stuck north of Qatar. EIA reported a…
Westpac New Zealand Economics has revised its 2026/27 farmgate milk price forecast up by 25c to $9.75/kg, citing stronger than expected milk powder prices and shifting global demand from fats to proteins. A confirmed super-sized El Niño presents upside risk…
UBS CIO expects the S&P 500 rally to continue after its first record since August, forecasting the index at 8,400 by June 2027. Support comes from AI capex growth above 33% to USD 1.2tr in 2027, roughly 25% S&P 500 earnings growth this year, and 2.2% US GDP…
IPO booms are not automatically bearish for stocks. Past surges, notably in 1999-2000, preceded major downturns, and new listings compete for investor capital while signalling possible euphoria. Yet the two largest IPO years of the 1990s, 1993 and 1996, came…
The National Bank of Poland left its reference rate at 3.75% in October. September inflation rose to about 4.0% year-on-year, but ING attributes the increase almost entirely to higher fuel prices, with core inflation likely easing slightly and no clear signs…
Mexico's September auto data showed mixed signals: production fell 15.1% year over year to 301,803 vehicles — a sharper contraction than the prior 1.4% decline — while exports dropped 11.9% to 277,369. Domestic light-vehicle sales rose 7.9% year over year to…
This BNP Paribas Eco Week editorial previews a sectoral review of Europe's economic recovery two years on from the Draghi report. No findings, figures or conclusions are provided in the available text; the article is a header with author details and links to…
AI has not yet caused broad labor-market disruption, but September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 versus a 90,000 consensus, with the three-month average at 51,000. Job losses are concentrated in Information and Finance, while Education and Health…
SMBC argues Treasury demand has shifted from buy-and-hold investors, especially foreign official institutions, toward hedge funds that rely on repo funding. Using Federal Reserve Board elasticity estimates, the note calculates the market's demand sensitivity…
The Iran war hurt EU chemical producers less than feared, with production, capacity use and margins improving, but the reprieve is temporary. By June, EU output was 0.5% lower year-on-year and about 24% below early 2022. Once Gulf supply routes normalise,…
Bonds are under pressure from higher oil prices on escalating Strait of Hormuz attacks, renewed EGB fractures, and a hawkish global central bank tone (RBI hike, possible BCRP move). Treasury and Canadian yields rose in bear steepeners, with long-end yields up…
Hungarian headline inflation rose to 1.6% YoY in September, well below the 2.0% estimate, with prices up only 0.2% MoM. A 5.9% fuel price jump was offset by falling food and service prices. Core inflation eased and underlying measures remain favourable,…
Natixis argues that the exceptional summer 2026 heatwaves acted as a persistent but temporary cost-push shock to euro area prices, not growth. Local projections on a 1995-2025 panel show energy prices rising 0.81pp on impact and food prices 0.46pp, with food…
The MOVE index fell 7.39% to 105.21 — its second-largest one-session drop on record — while the 10-year yield barely moved at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.68%. Equity volatility is already exhausted: VVIX at 82.59 is lower than all 60 stored sessions. Saxo…
The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50%, its first hike in four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, ruling out near-term cuts. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised up to 7.1% and 5.2%. ING expects a gradual cycle with 50bp more…
Czech real industrial output rose 2.6% year-on-year in August (working-day and seasonally adjusted) and 0.3% month-on-month, despite automotive plant holidays, led by other transport equipment, computer/electronics and chemicals. New orders grew 5.9% YoY,…
Crude tanker earnings have reached unprecedented levels above $500,000 per day, ten times the 2025 average, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption force rerouting and protected convoys. Freight from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam surged above $35/bbl from…