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Global government bond yields reached about 4%, the highest since 2007, as the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened with hawkish tones. Brent spiked to $105 then eased to around $90, with a path toward $80 by early 2027 expected. Equities stayed resilient on AI…
Euro corporate primary markets reopened in September, with supply rising to €56bn from €25bn in August and YTD issuance at €389bn, about 11% ahead of last year and above the 2020 YTD high. TMT led at €15bn; corporate hybrids set a record. Bank bond supply…
Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened to $4.2 billion in August 2026, the largest since May 2022, as energy exports rose 4.7% and U.S. buyers front-ran new 50% tariffs imposed August 22. Trade to non-U.S. destinations rose 40% year-over-year versus 24%…
Advanced economies show resilient growth despite oil price shocks, with AI and capital goods investment driving the cycle. Inflation exceeds targets in the US, UK and Eurozone, and is expected to peak in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, though energy inflation may spread.…
September USD corporate issuance was US$112bn, near August's US$118bn, pushing YTD supply above US$1tn and past 2025's full-year US$925bn. TMT led at US$44bn, with YTD US$381bn. Corporate net supply was US$69bn, YTD US$573bn. Financial bank supply rose to…
Czech September CPI rose to 2.5% y/y, with core near 3.1% and services at 4.6% y/y. Fuel, regulated energy and a weaker koruna are lifting goods prices; food disinflation is seen reversing. ING assigns an 80% probability to a November CNB hike and 30% to a…
France faces rising bond market stress from a toxic mix of high debt, political paralysis, weak growth and limited revenue room. The government proposes €54bn (1.7% of GDP) fiscal consolidation for 2027, targeting a 5% deficit. ABN AMRO's base case assumes…
August heat and drought hit Hungarian retail sales, which rose just 2.4% year-on-year, below ING's 4.2% estimate, while industrial output jumped 8.7% year-on-year on a working-day-adjusted basis, the strongest since late 2022. ING keeps its 2026 industrial…
French bonds outperformed, with yields down about 10bp across the curve and spreads over bunds tighter, after National Rally leader Marine Le Pen proposed cutting the deficit from 5-6% to just over 2% by 2032 and called for ECB action. Quebec's election…
PIMCO's October 2026 Cyclical Outlook foresees resilient global growth and moderating inflation over the next six to 12 months, underpinned by an AI capex boom, consumers and China absorbing higher costs, and gradual central bank action. However, the benign…
State Street's Jennifer Taylor argues the 2026 energy-driven inflation impulse is narrower than 2021-2022, so most EM central banks will pause or slow cuts rather than hike broadly. High starting yields favor carry in local currency EM debt, with duration and…
Seven months into the Iran conflict, the six-month WTI contract is about 25% above end-February levels, tracking prior geopolitical oil shocks. Yet IG credit spreads remain flat and Treasury yields have risen, echoing 2022 more than 1991. Higher all-in yields…
The National Bank of Poland is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% on 7 October despite September CPI at 4.0% YoY. Fuel-market intervention (lower excise duty and VAT) will subtract 0.7pp from CPI through year-end. Price pressures appear limited to…
Philippine headline inflation surprised to the upside at 7.2% YoY in September, up from 6.1% in August and above ING's 6.8% forecast. Non-rice food prices drove roughly 75% of the 1.1pp increase, with rice and transport contributing about 10% each. Core…
Commonwealth Bank ranked first in Asia-Pacific and fourth globally in the 2026 Evident AI Index, the only APAC bank in the global top 10. The bank's AI systems generate over 40,000 proactive fraud alerts daily, supported by human-supervised agentic AI for…
Saudi Arabia's real GDP contracted 4.7% yoy in Q2 2026, the weakest since 2012 excluding Covid, as oil activity fell 24.8% yoy and non-oil growth slowed to 0.9%. The IMF cut 2026 growth to 1.7%, but 1H26 actual prints -0.87%, so full-year growth may head…
French manufacturing rebounded only 0.3% in August after a 0.8% July decline, and the three-month trend remains clearly negative at -1.9%. Weak orders, high inventories, falling goods consumption and tightening financial conditions reinforce the risk of…
September 2026 was the worst month of the year for US IG (-2.72%), US HY (-2.52%) and Asia IG (-2.04%) total returns, with Asia USD HY relatively resilient at -1.20%. The Fed's first hike in roughly three years pushed the 10Y UST to a 2026 high of 5.29% (30Y…
French sovereign debt stress climaxed Friday with the OAT-Bund spread at 159bp and the 10-year yield near 5%, while euro pressure may have peaked Monday. The ECB's TPI is inapplicable to deficit-driven stress, and US long yields at modern highs add global…
Long-dated US Treasuries closed at multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at 5.66% and the 10-year at 5.30%, while the 2-year was near 4.82%. Wall Street advanced on easing near-term Fed hike expectations, with the Nasdaq Composite setting a record close.…