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The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a fourth straight record close of 7,818.93, while volatility eased across tenors and the MOVE index fell 7.39%. The US trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion, above consensus. Brent crude traded near $101.5 after reversing a…
German industrial production rebounded 2% month-on-month in August after a 1.2% July decline and rose 2.3% year-on-year, driven by construction and manufacturing while autos lagged on summer holidays. The heatwave's economic damage proved milder than feared.…
Nomura forecasts fewer rate hikes than markets price, viewing this as a resumption of hiking cycles with policy rates near or above neutral and inflation largely cost-push. It expects a Fed hike in December then an extended hold, two ECB hikes to a 3.00% depo…
Standard Chartered argues renminbi adoption in ASEAN has shifted from policy push to commercial logic, spanning trade settlement, financing and capital markets. Sectors with deep China supply-chain ties lead, and multinational corporates are seen as the next…
Brent slipped from USD102/bbl on 1 October to about USD98 on 6 October after the G7 agreed on 2 October to release 100mn barrels of crude and diesel over four months, with Saudi Arabia widening its November Asian discount to USD5 from USD2. Brent rebounded to…
US August trade deficit widened 13.7% to USD105.6bn on a USD2.4bn semiconductor import jump, underscoring the AI build-out. German factory orders fell 10.6% MoM. BoJ's Ueda flagged broadening inflation but tied further hikes to data; Fed's Daly conditioned…
Brent is holding above $100 despite Middle East exports recovering near pre-war levels, as EIA now projects non-OPEC+ supply outside the region to fall about 0.5 mb/d in 2026 before rebounding 3.4 mb/d in 2027. CBA's John Oh cites Hormuz tanker-attack risk…
FactSet expects S&P 500 Q3 earnings to rise 29.5% year-on-year with revenue up 12.3%, while analysts unusually raised estimates by 1.4% during the quarter. With the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3%, a routine beat may no longer suffice. Saxo argues…
The oil market is caught between improving Persian Gulf supply and continued attacks on ships, with ICE Brent dipping toward $97/bbl before settling above $100/bbl. Middle distillates have weakened as the ICE gasoil crack fell to about $73/bbl from over…
HSBC argues the infrastructure financing gap cannot be closed by public funding alone, especially in emerging markets. Multilateral development banks and development finance institutions mobilised USD 278.5 billion in 2024, up 27%, but this remains far short…
Brent for December delivery trades near USD 101.60/b, up about 1%, and WTI is back above USD 90/b, up around 0.8%, as fighting in Yemen and the Bab al Mandeb waterway offset recovering Gulf flows. The API reported a 2.1m bbl draw in US commercial crude…
MUFG expects the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today, but views the pause as temporary. Higher oil prices, weather-related risks and resilient domestic demand keep upside inflation pressures elevated into 2027. MUFG forecasts two 25bp hikes in…
MUFG flags renewed yen underperformance, with USD/JPY at 158.51, sitting on its 200-day moving average. A break would open further gains toward 160 and possible intervention speculation. The Fed has three 25bp hikes priced through mid-2027, and an October…
MUFG attributes the EUR sell-off to higher US yields and mounting euro-area fiscal and political risk, especially France, with French bond stress reviving fragmentation concerns and high foreign ownership of OATs amplifying outflows. EUR/USD has broken below…
RBI raised the repo rate 25bp to 5.50% and shifted to "calibrated tightening", but MUFG judges the move not hawkish enough to justify current INR front-end pricing (1y OIS 6.26%, 2y 6.45%). MUFG forecasts one more hike to 5.75% by Feb 2027, with risk of…
Natixis expects Peru's central bank (BCRP) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, with two more 25bp hikes pencilled in for 2026, putting the real rate back inside the neutral range. Headline inflation has exceeded 4.0% since June, reaching 4.55% y/y in…
Confidence in Canada's housing market came under renewed pressure in September, as escalation of the trade war with the United States and rising long-term interest rates put buyers on the defensive. Most local real estate boards reported a drop in home…
The Nasdaq rose over 1% to a record high while the 10-year US Treasury yield reached a 24-year high. Market breadth has narrowed, with fewer US stocks above key moving averages and the equal-weighted S&P 500 lagging. UBS CIO retains strong conviction in AI…
Canadian exports rose 2.5% in August, a sixth straight monthly surplus, aided by tariff front-running. Imports fell 2.0%, led by autos and gold. The US deficit widened to US$105bn on a 4.3% import surge. Canada's estimated effective tariff rate rose to 4.6%,…
US tariffs on European goods had a limited macro impact in 2025, with GDP effects between -0.1 and +0.15 percentage points, as exports to the US are only about 3% of EU GDP and roughly 90% of the tariff burden fell on American buyers. However, Chinese…