Polish mpc remains patient and keeps policy rates on hold in october

Key arguments

• September inflation around 4.0% y/y is almost entirely fuel-driven, and core inflation most likely edged down slightly, a mildly dovish signal.
• The Council added regulatory decisions on energy prices to its inflation risks, covering regulated gas and electricity tariffs and possible excise/VAT cuts on fuels.
• No clear signs of broad-based price pressures have appeared in Poland, though second-round effects are emerging in the Czech Republic.
• ING expects 25–50bp of preventive hikes in 1Q27, with November's macro projection likely to open the tightening discussion.

Corresponding source evidence

1. In our view, the current inflation backdrop allows policymakers to remain on hold for several months As expected, the National Bank of Poland kept the reference rate at 3.75% NBP rates unchanged As expected, the Monetary Policy Council left National Bank of Poland interest rates unchanged in October.
2. The post-meeting statement remains concise and broadly neutral in tone In the post-meeting statement, the Council noted that the increase in inflation in September was driven mainly by higher fuel prices, while core inflation most likely edged down slightly.
3. This may refer both to likely increases in regulated gas and electricity prices for households, which we believe should be lower than implied by 2027 futures contracts. · 2027