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The NBP held rates in October 2026 and Governor Glapiński flagged rising inflation risks from the Middle East energy shock, but stressed the increase is supply-driven with limited pass-through and no second-round effects. Core inflation was modest and likely…
French business creations rose 12% y/y over the first eight months of 2026, up from 5.3% in 2025, led by information and communication technologies. Bankruptcies increased 5.3% y/y from January to July, slower than 2025's 3.6% rise, after an 8% q1 surge.…
Peru's central bank unexpectedly held its policy rate at 4.25% for a 13th straight month, contrary to market consensus favoring a hike. Chile's September CPI rose 0.4% m/m, keeping annual inflation at 4.1%, while Mexico's headline inflation edged up to 3.45%…
Agentic commerce, where autonomous AI agents search, compare and buy on consumers' behalf, is forcing retailers to redefine physical stores. ING Research argues adoption is strongest in standardised, repeat categories like consumer electronics and personal…
The ECB's September minutes confirm a unanimous Governing Council view that a worsening inflation outlook and economic resilience justified a 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate, though the tone was less hawkish than President Lagarde's press conference. Some…
September saw Treasury yields surge sharply while high-quality credit spreads barely moved. The 2-year rose 57bp to 4.91%, the 10-year 49bp to 5.21%, and the 30-year reached 5.54%, yet AAA spreads held at 27bp. Lower-quality credit widened significantly: BB…
Saxo's options brief notes the S&P 500 fell 0.22% while the equal-weight index lost 0.78% and the Russell 2000 1.31%, yet index option pricing barely followed. Implied correlation at 11.28 remains elevated while dispersion at 36.11 is middling. A new earnings…
The November 3 midterms could end unified government. The baseline, a Democratic House and a neck-and-neck Senate, implies legislative gridlock while the White House keeps leeway on tariffs, immigration, deregulation and foreign policy. Fiscal sticking…
Standard Chartered's CIO compares investing with Formula 1, arguing that beating the market consistently is as hard as winning the F1 championship. Morningstar's 2026 Mind the Gap report puts investor underperformance at 1.2% a year. Applied to a 7% long-term…
Natixis feedback from BMW's Capital Markets Day: BMW introduces an intermediate 2028 Automotive EBIT margin guidance of 3-5% (vs 1-3% for FY2026), with the 8-10% target pushed to the early 2030s. Fixed cost cuts (+1.5pp), variable cost cuts (+0.5pp) and PPA…
Gold is caught between macro headwinds and strategic demand. A 3% dollar rally and a 50bp rise in US Treasury yields, with 10-year real yields near 3%, have pushed gold down about 5%. Yet ETF holdings rose to a four-year high of 3,149 tonnes, up 72 tonnes…
Taiwan's September trade surplus reached a record US$3.6bn, exceeding the prior month's US$22.3bn figure as reported, with exports up 60.9% YoY to a six-month high and imports up 51.7% YoY. Growth was concentrated in machinery and electrical equipment,…
This WashingtonWise preview of the 2026 midterms focuses on the outlook for House and Senate control, the key races that could decide the balance of power, and why divided government is emerging as the most likely outcome. It reviews historical market…
The dollar index holds near year-to-date highs as US rate markets cut expected October Fed hikes to about 5bps from 10bps, with FOMC minutes showing no urgency; gains are driven more by euro-area fiscal and political risk than domestic data, as French-German…
German exports fell 0.8% month-on-month in August 2026, a second straight decline after -0.5% in July, while imports rose 0.9% and the trade surplus widened to €19.5bn. ING flags low river water levels as a possible drag. Structurally, China's share of German…
Elevated global rates volatility, driven partly by the US 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%, is keeping eurozone government bond spreads wide despite European political efforts. A return to the low-volatility conditions that previously supported carry trades…
September FOMC minutes showed most participants expected another rate increase by year-end, keeping the dollar supported. ING sees DXY grinding toward 102.85 while markets already price a December hike to 4.25% plus 50bp next year. French debt unrest keeps…
The September FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 25bp hike but a split over whether supply or demand drives inflation; most saw another hike before year-end as likely, yet saw little urgency for October. US 10-year yields spiked intraday above 5.36%, a 24-year…
Citi argues five forces are reshaping Gulf liquidity management: regional expansion is fragmenting cash across accounts and entities; the UAE is becoming a treasury hub; multi-currency activity (AED, USD, EUR, GBP) is growing; treasury is shifting from cash…
For two decades, low Asian labour costs suppressed global goods inflation, but ageing populations and rising incomes are eroding that disinflationary impulse. Manufacturing is shifting to capital, technology and power, with AI supply chains concentrated in…