Record breaking tanker rates pile pressure on high fuel prices
中文标题
创纪录的油轮运价加剧高燃油价格压力
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Crude tanker earnings have reached unprecedented levels above $500,000 per day, ten times the 2025 average, as the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption force rerouting and protected convoys. Freight from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam surged above $35/bbl from $2/bbl in 2025. Combined with elevated refinery margins, this could add over $0.50 per litre to diesel. Product tanker earnings only tripled. New orders doubled to 28% of the fleet, but deliveries in 2028-29 may arrive after the boom.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 10/07/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- 2025 · 2020 · 2022 · 2028 · 2027
Key arguments
- Crude tanker rates are at all-time highs due to war-risk premiums and capacity squeeze.
- Alternative routes and protected corridors add strain on already stretched tanker market.
- Order book doubled to 28% but new vessels deliver in 2028-29, likely after the boom ends.
- Geopolitics remains the key driver; a solid 2027 is still possible.
Key numbers
- Average global crude tanker earnings
- $500,000/day
- Ras Tanura-Rotterdam crude freight
- >$35/bbl (Sep 2026), vs $2/bbl in 2025
- Diesel crack spread in Europe
- ~2.5x 2025 average
- Potential diesel price increase
- >$0.50/litre
- Order book as % of fleet
- 28% (doubled from 14%)
Main risks
- Conflict escalation could further disrupt shipping and raise rates.
- New vessel deliveries in 2028-29 may coincide with a downturn, pressuring rates.
- High insurance premiums and war-risk operations may deter some operators.
Corresponding source evidence
Combined with high refinery margins (the current crack spread of diesel in Europe is about 2.5 times the 2025 average), this could add over $0.50 to the base price of a litre of diesel at the gas station.
· 2025Orders for new crude tankers have surged on a bullish market Order books for new crude and product tankers in % of the total fleet Source: Clarksons, ING Research Crude tanker orders pick up after a prolonged downturn Tanker markets are cyclical by nature, and there’s a clear connection with freight rates.
Over the pandemic years of 2020-21, tanker earnings hit lows due to lower oil consumption and shipments.
· 2020
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING THINKRecord breaking tanker rates pile pressure on high fuel prices | 10/07/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankCommodity weekly Gold steadies as oil tightness and growth fears divide markets | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/07/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction