UBS CIO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026 and potentially cut in H1 2027, while elevated inflation and policy uncertainty from Chair Warsh keep long yields high. They recommend diversified portfolios with global equities, quality short-to-medium…
Canada's Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, the fastest in the G7, with strong domestic demand and investment. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates given robust interest-sensitive sectors. Momentum persists into Q3, though inventory swings and trade…
Chile's unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in the three months to July, above consensus, with job losses driven by weather disruptions and structural weaknesses. Employment posted its first annual decline in over five years, reflecting deterioration across…
Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, with uncertainty over whether he will provide near-term guidance or focus on broader themes. Canada's Q2 GDP is expected to show strong growth, potentially the fastest in the G7. Eurozone…
Scotiabank Economics' Latam Weekly report reviews upcoming key data from Latin America and G10 economies, highlighting Mexico's Q2-2026 GDP details, Peru's inflation and growth outlook, and Brazil's and Chile's GDP expectations. Trade risks persist for…
Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% this week but sees hikes starting in December, with two more next year, citing stronger growth and inflation risks. The US August nonfarm payrolls are forecast at +30k, and the report…
ING Think's CEE & CCA week ahead report covers key data releases and central bank decisions in Poland, Hungary, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. Poland's 2Q26 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY, with August inflation edging up to 3.1% YoY. Hungary's GDP…
ING expects Hungary's labour market to ease modestly with wage growth moderating, but structural pressures from demographics persist, supporting elevated wage growth and consumption; they maintain their 2026 forecasts for average wage growth and unemployment.
Italian confidence data improved broadly in August, supporting ING's forecast of 0.9% GDP growth in 2026. Consumer confidence rose to a three-month high, business confidence improved across sectors, and services showed particular strength. Despite…
Poland's draft 2027 budget continues fiscal expansion with a projected general government deficit of 7.1% of GDP, the highest in the EU. Macroeconomic assumptions are broadly in line with ING's baseline. Gross borrowing needs are expected to be lower than…
ING expects the RBNZ to hike its OCR by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September, in line with market consensus, while retaining a hawkish bias. However, ING sees dovish risks from lower inflation projections, a potentially less hawkish message than markets price, and a…
ING Think analyzes Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as net hawkish despite his stated avoidance of forward guidance. The market reaction flattened the yield curve, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.3% and hike odds for September jumping to 54%. ING remains…
Citi's report reviews the latest developments in EU and UK financial services regulation, focusing on digital finance, including the digital euro and digital pound projects, stablecoin regimes, crypto-asset regulation, fund tokenisation, AI, cybersecurity,…
Nvidia's earnings confirm sustained AI computing demand, but the AI investment opportunity is broadening beyond GPUs into specialized infrastructure (chips/design), context/software (data & workflows), and control/security (identity, protection, recovery).…
Saxo Bank reports that the commodity rally broadened in August 2026, with precious metals and agriculture outperforming energy. The BCOM TR index is on track for its best month on record, up ~31% YTD. Precious metals rose ~15% on fiscal sustainability…
Commonwealth Bank's Luke Yeaman argues that the global economy has entered a new era of heightened uncertainty and volatility driven by four structural forces: geopolitical rivalry, AI and robotics, the Net Zero transition, and demographic shifts. These…
Saxo Bank's Market Quick Take highlights Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Warsh's speech as the key event, with markets positioning for a hawkish tone. Equities show a narrow tech-led rally in the US, while Europe falls on French political risk. Bitcoin holds near…
Macquarie highlights Italy as a prime long-term investment destination driven by EU RRF funds, digital infrastructure, renewables, and transport, presenting opportunities for private capital and domestic investors.
Westpac's weekly analysis highlights an upside surprise in Australian July CPI, prompting an assessment of RBA policy risks, while solid household spending and mixed investment data precede Q2 GDP. Offshore, US consumer resilience contrasts with weak housing…
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