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Canada's Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% q/q SAAR and Q3 is tracking 2%, rapidly eroding slack. July GDP was 0.0% m/m, August flash +0.2%. The output gap is now around -0.5%, down from -1.4% in Q1. Scotiabank Economics argues the BoC likely needs to begin…
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as…
TD Economics expects Canadian home sales to drop about 5% in 2026, with no recovery of that lost ground in 2027, as elevated bond yields keep fixed mortgage rates high. Average prices are seen roughly flat this year and below 2% growth next year. The Bank of…
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also…
Natixis' China Corporate Monitor 2026 argues that wide-ranging monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support has lowered financing pressure and stabilized parts of the economy, but has failed to ignite a corporate recovery. Weaker domestic demand has…
Japanese officials escalated verbal warnings against yen weakness, with the chief currency official citing a "very clear" message from Japan and the US and the finance minister calling yen undervaluation a problem. USD/JPY fell to an intra-day low of 156.51…
RBC's national affordability measure edged down only 0.4 percentage points to 52.8% in Q2 2026, the smallest improvement in almost a year. Rising household income accounted for the entire gain as home prices stabilized and rates held steady. Vancouver (83.9%)…
SMBC forecasts September headline NFP at 67k, private NFP at 74k, and unemployment at 4.1%. The note highlights healthcare and social assistance, now a record 17.6% of private employment, as the dominant source of job growth. Hiring has tracked national…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
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TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
SMBC argues the recent rate selloff reflects a repricing of the policy path rather than market stress, as futures basis and on-the-run/off-the-run spreads stayed orderly. With roughly 95bp of additional tightening priced over 12 months, SMBC believes the…
Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline.…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
Early industry data indicate Canadian real GDP stalled in July after averaging 0.4% monthly gains in Q2. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales fell, though manufacturing GDP was likely near flat given weakness in petroleum and autos. Oil and gas output…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2%…
MUFG warns that a tougher external backdrop—higher US Treasury yields and Brent above $100/bbl—leaves Asia FX with a narrow path. The next US payrolls report is the key catalyst; consensus expects 100k jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. MUFG keeps a bias for…
The yen is the top performer after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said President Trump expressed concern over yen weakness, while Growth Minister Kiuchi noted the communication that rate hikes are on the radar. US Treasury yields fell modestly, tightly…