Provincial Resale Market September2026
中文标题
省级转售市场 9月2026
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
TD Economics expects Canadian home sales to drop about 5% in 2026, with no recovery of that lost ground in 2027, as elevated bond yields keep fixed mortgage rates high. Average prices are seen roughly flat this year and below 2% growth next year. The Bank of Canada is assumed on hold through 2027, and the forecast hinges on bond yields drifting lower from Q4 onward.
- Institution
- TD Economics / TD Securities
- Published
- 09/29/2026
- Research topic
- US 10Y Treasury · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- next year · 2027 · this year · 2026
Key arguments
- Higher global bond yields, which underpin fixed mortgage rates, are already weighing on Canadian housing, with sales falling in August for the first time in six months.
- TD upgraded its bond yield forecast through next year versus June, even assuming the Bank of Canada stays on hold through 2027 amid near-target underlying inflation and gradual crude oil easing.
- Near-term forecasts for Canadian home sales and average prices were downgraded; sales remain well below pre-pandemic levels through 2027.
- Modest quarterly gains depend on pent-up demand, gradual job market improvement, and some downdrift in Canadian bond yields from Q4 through next year.
Key numbers
- 2026 national home sales growth
- -5.3%
- 2026 national average home price growth
- 0.1%
- 2027 national home price growth
- 1.7%
- 2027 Ontario home sales growth
- 7.4%
- 2027 British Columbia home price growth
- 0.9%
Main risks
- The forecast hinges on bond yields drifting lower from Q4 onward; if yields stay higher, housing activity and prices would likely undershoot.
- Escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade conflict has already led to a downgraded job market outlook, which could further weaken demand.
- Weak population growth in B.C., Ontario and the Atlantic caps the pace of sales rebalancing and price gains.
Corresponding source evidence
economics.td.com TD Economics • Canada has not been immune to the recent rise in global bond yields, which reflects a more challenging back - drop for fiscal and monetary policy (see here ).
• With the forces behind the climb in rates set to linger, we’ve upgraded our forecast for bond yields through next year, relative to our prior forecast in June (Chart 1).
· next yearThis upgrade comes even under our baseline assumption that the Bank of Canada remains on hold through 2027 amid near-target underlying inflation and an expected gradual easing in crude oil prices.
· 2027
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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Publisher disclaimer
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · US10Y
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Economics / TD SecuritiesProvincial Resale Market September2026 | 09/29/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily inflation versus ai overbuild story dominates | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Macroeconomics · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027 | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | 2027 Q4 |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by TD Economics / TD Securities on 09/29/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction