Euro area: September Inflation Preview
中文标题
欧元区：9月通胀预览
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline. Inflation is seen rising across the four largest economies, with 2026 averages revised to 2.95% headline and 2.45% core.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- EUR/USD · Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026
Key arguments
- Rising energy prices are the primary driver lifting headline and core inflation in September.
- The Brent price surge and unfavorable base effects pushed annual petrol inflation to 26% yoy and diesel to 37% yoy.
- Inflation is expected to increase in September across all four major euro area economies.
- 2026 average forecasts were revised upward to 2.95% for headline and 2.45% for core inflation.
Key numbers
- Euro area headline inflation (September, yoy)
- 3.55%
- Euro area core inflation (September, yoy)
- 2.55%
- Euro area 2026 average headline forecast
- 2.95%
- Brent crude price
- $102/bbl (prior spring peak $104)
- Spain September headline inflation (yoy)
- 4.6%
Main risks
- Energy prices could reverse or moderate from current levels, weakening the projected inflation impulse.
- Favorable base effects later in the year could pull annual inflation rates below these forecasts.
- Country-level inflation dispersion, with Spain at 4.6% versus France at 3.2%, complicates the euro area aggregate picture.
Corresponding source evidence
At the country level, inflation is expected to increase in September in the four major euro area countries, reaching 3.3% yoy in Germany, 3.2% in France, 3.5% in Italy, and 4.6% in Spain.
For the full year 2026, we anticipate headline inflation to average 2.8% in Germany, 2.4% in France, and 3.8% in Spain and 2.8% in Italy.
· 2026+33 158 55 62 71 patricia.florezcabra@natixis.com Discover more on our Website EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT 2 Key Forecasts for the Euro area Rising energy prices are the main factor driving headline inflation upward, both across the euro area and within its four largest economies.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · EURUSD
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NatixisEuro area: September Inflation Preview | 09/25/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Commonwealth BankIs monetary policy still working? RBA's Chris Kent says it is | 10/19/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKfx daily inflation versus ai overbuild story dominates | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| ING THINKcee cca week ahead 16 october | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction