Brazil – Election Survey Results
中文标题
巴西 – 选举调查结果
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis' survey of 45 respondents on Brazil's October 4 election shows a split market reaction. A Lula win is dominated by fiscal-responsibility concerns (76%), with 83% expecting USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October. A Flavio Bolsonaro win is seen as BRL-supportive, with a median expectation of 4.87, though risks around policy execution and family distractions remain. On institutional rupture, 42% see similar risk under either candidate.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 09/29/2026
- Research topic
- Not explicitly stated
- Time horizon
- 2022
Key arguments
- A Lula victory is viewed primarily as a fiscal risk, not an institutional or monetary one.
- A Flavio Bolsonaro victory is generally seen as more supportive for the BRL, with a median end-October expectation of 4.87.
- The Bolsonaro scenario is not considered risk-free: concerns center on policy execution, frictions with Congress and the Supreme Court.
- Most respondents (42%) see the risk of institutional rupture as about the same under either candidate.
Key numbers
- Lula win: fiscal responsibility as main concern
- 76%
- Lula win: USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October
- 83%
- Bolsonaro win: median USD/BRL by end-October
- 4.87
- Institutional rupture risk about the same under either candidate
- 42%
- Survey respondents
- 45
Main risks
- A Lula win is associated with fiscal slippage and USD/BRL above 5.30 by end-October.
- A Bolsonaro win carries concerns over policy execution, frictions with Congress and the Supreme Court, and agenda disruptions tied to efforts to free Jair Bolsonaro.
- Institutional rupture risk is seen as about the same under either candidate by the largest share (42%), while 29% see it higher under Lula and 24% under Bolsonaro.
Corresponding source evidence
+12126983044 benito.berber@natixis.com Discover more on our Website Brazil – Election Survey Results Brazil’s general election will be held on October 4, with asecond round on October 25 ifno candidate secures more than 50% of the vote inthe first round.
5.0 - 5.10 5.10 - 5.20 5.20 - 5.30 5.30 - 5.40 5.40 - 5.50 Over 5.50 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Median: Source: Natixis LATAM MACRO SNAPSHOT research.natixis.com IfFlávio Bolsonaro wins… bullish BRL expectations but risks remain Under aFlávio Bolsonaro victory, survey respondents expect amore favorable market reaction.
Policy formanaging conflicts of interest: https://natixis.groupebpce.com/wp- content/uploads/2022/11/summary_policy_management_of_conflicts_of_interest s_eng_220826.pdf Information about potential conflicts ofinterest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation Thisdocument isacommunication fordiscussion andinformation purposes only and isexclusively intended forand may only betransmitted toeligible counterparties, professional clients andqualified investors, assuch terms (ortheir equivalents) areunderstood andapplied under allrelevant laws andregulations applicable toyouandus,forpurposes ofthiscommunication.
· 2022
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 09/29/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction