Focus on Canadian housingRBC Economics
中文标题
聚焦加拿大住房 · RBC Economics
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
RBC's national affordability measure edged down only 0.4 percentage points to 52.8% in Q2 2026, the smallest improvement in almost a year. Rising household income accounted for the entire gain as home prices stabilized and rates held steady. Vancouver (83.9%) and Toronto (64.1%) remain least affordable, though both improved. Prairie and Atlantic markets saw their first increases in several quarters. RBC expects modest affordability deterioration into 2027 as rising bond yields lift fixed mortgage rates and expected Bank of Canada hikes push variable rates higher, with spiking energy costs adding to utility bills.
- Institution
- RBC Economics
- Published
- 09/28/2026
- Research topic
- US 10Y Treasury
- Time horizon
- 2024 · 2025 · next year · 2027 · Q2 2025 · long-term · Q1 2024
Key arguments
- Rising household income drove the entire national affordability gain in Q2 as home prices and interest rates held fairly steady.
- National home prices stabilized in Q2, breaking from steady declines that had produced substantial affordability improvement since summer 2025.
- Rising bond yields mark a turn for the worse for ownership costs via higher fixed mortgage rates, while expected BoC hikes could do the same for variable-rate mortgages next year.
- Vancouver's ten consecutive declines rolled back more than half the pandemic spike, but it remains Canada's least affordable market at 83.9%.
Key numbers
- National aggregate affordability measure Q2
- 52.8%
- Quarterly national improvement
- 0.4 percentage points
- Vancouver aggregate measure
- 83.9%
- Toronto aggregate measure
- 64.1% (down 1.2 ppts)
- Regina aggregate measure vs long-run average
- 27.9% vs 27%
Main risks
- Rising long-term interest rates and expected Bank of Canada hikes next year could push ownership costs higher after significant declines since 2024.
- Spiking energy costs will exacerbate affordability by raising utility bills, particularly in Atlantic Canada.
- Vancouver home values are expected to continue sliding near term amid slumping demand and abundant inventory; resales down more than 6% this year.
Corresponding source evidence
Upward pressure on long-term interest rates and likelihood of Bank of Canada hikes next year could put ownership costs on the rise again after dropping significantly since 2024.
· 2024National home prices stabilized in Q2 from Q1—breaking from steady declines that produced substantial affordability improvement since summer 2025.
· 2025Meanwhile, rising bond yields mark a turn for the worse for ownership costs with higher fixed mortgage rates increasing interest payments, while expected BoC hikes could do the same for variable rate mortgages next year.
· next year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by RBC Economics on 09/28/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction