GLOBAL ECONOMICSTHE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD
中文标题
全球经济 · 未来一周全球展望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview sees September US nonfarm payrolls at 75k with unemployment steady at 4.1%, fading August's 162k as weather, local-government education and leisure hiring reverse. Canada's July GDP is tracked near +0.1% m/m with Q3 around 2% q/q SAAR. The RBA is expected to hike 25bp to 4.6%; BanRep is expected to hold at 12.0%. Core PCE at 0.2% m/m would support Fed patience; Eurozone and Tokyo CPI inform ECB and BoJ.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- 2026
Key arguments
- August's 162k payroll gain is treated as suspect: a one-off seasonal adjustment jump, roughly 40k weather effect, 35k government hiring (42k in local education) and 62k leisure/hospitality; excluding weather and those categories leaves about 25k.
- Scotiabank forecasts September payrolls at 75k (consensus 100k) with unemployment unchanged at 4.1%, assuming a higher September SA factor closer to 2022 than 2025.
- Canada: hours worked up 0.6% m/m in three of four months; Q3 tracking near 2% q/q SAAR, but expenditure-based GDP could differ via inventory restocking and export reversal.
- The RBA is nearly fully priced for a 25bp hike to 4.6%, with inflation above the 2-3% range; global September inflation reports (EZ, Tokyo, Australia) frame ECB and BoJ decisions.
Key numbers
- September US nonfarm payrolls (Scotiabank estimate)
- 75k
- September US nonfarm payrolls (consensus)
- 100k
- August US nonfarm payrolls
- 162k
- RBA cash rate target (expected)
- 4.6%
- Canada July real GDP m/m (Scotiabank estimate)
- +0.1%
Main risks
- US payrolls may repeat August's seasonal-adjustment distortion, making extrapolation from the estimate unreliable.
- Canada's Q3 expenditure-based GDP could diverge materially from production-based tracking via inventory restocking and export reversal.
- BanRep's 4-3 July split and >6% inflation keep a surprise hike possible despite consensus for a hold; EZ CPI could shift October hike pricing.
Corresponding source evidence
3–5 • BoC Speeches Could Inform Policy Rate and Balance Sheet Plans 5–6 • Central Banks —Deuces Are Wild?
6–7 • RBA —Going Up Down Under 6 • BanRep —Will the Governor Win Out This Time?
6–7 • Global Macro —Inflation Is Everywhere 7–8 FORECASTS & DATA • Key Indicators A1–A3 • Global Auctions Calendar A4 • Events Calendar A5 • Global Central Bank Watch A6 • US nonfarm payrolls preview • The biennial funny season in US politics will bring more volatility • US-China mini deal details pending • Canada’s economy — solid momentum?
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD | 09/25/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Westpac / Westpac IQWEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY · Downward revisions to 2027 outlook | 10/18/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| NatixisInflation Rises, Rates Ease | 10/16/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| SMBCUS Rates Strategy Daily · An [AI]nflationary Buildout | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction