GLOBAL ECONOMICSDAILY POINTS
中文标题
全球经济学 · 每日要点
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank's Derek Holt previews a data-heavy session that includes Canadian GDP for July and a Bank of Canada speech on repo markets and monetary policy implementation. He expects modest market moves, with US consumer confidence, JOLTS and Fed speakers also on tap. Spain's warmer-than-expected CPI is not seen as materially shifting the ECB's October 29 hold, while the RBA hiked to 4.60% but tempered its language.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/29/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- 2027
Key arguments
- Canadian Q3 GDP tracking may settle around 2% q/q SAAR or better, helped by a strong gain in hours worked.
- The BoC may still be underestimating optimal settlement balances; CORRA spread over the overnight rate remains persistently positive, signalling funding strains.
- US consumer confidence and JOLTS are often market-moving but perform poorly as inputs to spending or payroll forecasts.
- Spain's warmer CPI does not materially alter expectations for an ECB hold on October 29.
Key numbers
- BoC target range for settlement balances
- $50-70B
- Current BoC settlement balances
- ~$80B
- BoC annual repo purchase volumes
- ~$60B
- Australia cash rate after RBA hike
- 4.60%
- Spain CPI y/y
- 4.9%
Main risks
- A lower-than-expected Canadian GDP print could temper the resilient Q3 narrative.
- Persistent CORRA spread positivity may signal deeper funding strains than the BoC acknowledges.
- BoC balance sheet guidance could surprise markets, particularly regarding the timing of a return to gross GoC bond buying.
Corresponding source evidence
The dollar is broadly firmer, oil prices are a few dimes lower, stocks are little changed in N.A.
July and preliminary August readings will inform tracking of Q3 GDP growth (8:30amET).
Statcan had guided "essentially unchanged" in its advance reading for July which can usually mean -0.1% to +0.1% m/m and I went with 0.1%.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 09/29/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction