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1345 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#11514d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Hungarian government bond yields have also absorbed the deterioration in global sentiment relatively well, supported by expectations of fiscal consolidation.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11524d

UBS CIObullishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We have also raised our end-December forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.9%, from 4.6% previously.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 49

#11534d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This could take the US 10-year yield back into the 5.25% to 5.5% range.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11544d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

With 5.25% looking like a mean-reversion level, we think the US 10-year yield could overshoot towards 5.5% and remain elevated for a number of months as bond market jitters persist.

5.25%US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11554d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Probably overdone, but far from over We think the 10-year yield on US Treasuries will remain above 5.00% and head back up to 5.25% The mood for US Treasuries has calmed.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11564d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

It just has not translated into a meaningful move lower in yields, mostly as it had been offset by net shorts on Treasury futures.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11574d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Treasuries did not react much to Thursday's data, but market participants will be aware that we had another good (low) jobless claims number, retail sales were firm and PPI inflation uncomfortably high.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11584d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This could take the US 10-year yield back into the 5.25% to 5.5% range.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11594d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

With 5.25% looking like a mean-reversion level, we think the US 10-year yield could overshoot towards 5.5% and remain elevated for a number of months as bond market jitters persist.

5.25%US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11604d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Ynext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We suspect the Treasury will also resist the temptation to boost next year's minimum wage rise over and above independent recommendations (c.4%).

4%US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 49

#11614d

PIMCOneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Y2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

THE CREDIT MARKET LENS The Credit Market Lens: AI Capex and the Limits of Crowding Out 9/21/2026 AI capital spending may be contributing to higher real rates, but there is little evidence that it’s due to AI bond issuance crowding out Treasuries.

9US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 49

#11624d

PIMCOneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Y2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

For credit investors, it is more nuanced: Do spreads adequately compensate… ECONOMIC AND MARKET COMMENTARY Welcome Back, Balanced Portfolio 9/8/2026 Balanced portfolios are back: Higher bond yields are restoring fixed income’s role as both a potential source of income and a powerful diversifier.

9US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 49

#11636d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

There has been a similar modest retracement in bond market volatility as well and if bond yields have settled around a new equilibrium then we could see volatility come down further in both rates and FX.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#11645d

RBC EconomicsbullishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Rising bond yields end debt service reprieve in CanadaJob losses concentrated among young Canadians in SeptemberCanadian industry data to point to a modest GDP rebound in August RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#11656d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That has helped to lift Treasury markets and push yields lower.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#11666d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

On the flip side, political compromise could keep federal spending and borrowing elevated, adding to pressure on Treasury yields.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#11676d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Extra borrowing could add to pressure on Treasury yields.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 43

#11687d

OCBC ResearchbearishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Credit Market Updates Market Commentary: • The SGD SORA OIS curve traded lower yesterday; shorter tenors traded flat to 1bps lower, belly tenors traded 1-2bps lower, and 10Y tenor traded 2bps lower.

1bpUS 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11697d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

• Earnings beats could help sentiment recover, but rising bond yields and cautious management guidance remain risks.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 67Fresh 37

#11707d

Saxo BankbullishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Bank stocks have come under pressure as rising Treasury yields have raised concerns about borrowing costs, loan demand and potential credit losses.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 67Fresh 37

#11717d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Bilateral meetings or comments from currency officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, could generate FX -related headlines, so headline risk will also warrant attention.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11726d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Higher bond yields, export restrictions, Taiwan-related geopolitical risks and concerns about AI spending returns could continue to weigh on valuations.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 67Fresh 37

#11736d

Standard CharteredconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If AI can help a company understand where liquidity is needed, digital infrastructure can allow that liquidity to be mobilised more quickly; and if programmability helps the infrastructure to execute what should happen automatically and under defined controls, then treasury moves closer to operating in real time.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11746d

Standard CharteredneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The future of treasury will therefore be defined less by individual technologies than by how well the pieces work together: choosing the right form of money for the right purpose, using intelligence to make better decisions and moving liquidity efficiently without sacrificing control.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11757d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If that fuels concerns that the BoJ is falling behind the curve, the 10-year JGB yield could trade with an upward bias.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11767d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If Diet deliberations fail to identify specific alternative funding sources, fiscal policy concerns could put gradual upward pressure on the 10-year yield.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11777d

MUFGconditionalunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Conversely, the 10-year Japanese yield could struggle to rise any further if Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama continue to emphasize fiscal discipline or signal a shift away from reflationary policy, as they have done last week, in response to market developments.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11787d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A further increase in French government bond yields due to fiscal and political concerns could also boost demand for safe-haven assets and lower the 10-year UST yield, which would help to limit any rise in the Japanese equivalent.

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11797d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

As a result, we expect the 10-year JGB yield to remain at the elevated level of around 3% (Graph 2).

10US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 84Fresh 37

#11807d

CitineutralunclassifiedUS 10Y Treasury · US10Yunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

So that all means the broader context is really key here, and the bigger swing factor will be the reason behind those rising bond yields.

US 10Y Treasury★★★Heat 50 · 20 inst.Authority 100Fresh 37

#118121h 34m

MUFGbearishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The rupiah has weakened above IDR18,000/USD, while our existing framework points to a combination of higher US yields, weaker external balances from elevated oil prices and a tougher trade-off for Bank Indonesia.

18,000Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118214h 57m

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Little action has been seen so far today with the dollar index, euro and yen trading near unchanged while the Australian dollar is the clear G10 outperformer this morning, up 0.4% after Friday's risk-on session, while the Canadian dollar also firmed, USDCAD down 0.14%, with higher crude prices cited as support.

10Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 67Fresh 88

#118313h 51m

Commonwealth BankbullishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Dhar said the late rally was attributed to two events: Saudi Arabia intercepting a missile heading for the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and a Ukrainian drone striking a main unit of a large Russian oil refinery.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118413h 51m

Commonwealth BankbearishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Oil has some buffers, including pipelines that bypass trouble spots, rising supply outside the Middle East and lower Chinese imports.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118513h 51m

Commonwealth BankneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A deal that looks like a ceasefire should see Brent return to $US85-100 a barrel, while a deal that lifts the US naval blockade on Iran should see it fall to $US70-85.

85Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118613h 51m

Commonwealth BankneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIshort-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That means Brent "may stay above $US100 a barrel in the short term", Dhar said.

100Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118713h 51m

Commonwealth BankneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

But either side could overplay its hand, leaving oil and fuel stocks running down in some parts of the world.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118813h 51m

Commonwealth BankbearishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Dhar said that could push Brent towards $US150 a barrel; a level high enough to force lower demand in emerging and developing Asian economies.

150Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#118911h 37m

State StreetbearishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Growth will probably weaken further toward year-end as persistently high oil and gas prices push inflation above 4%, potentially prompt an interest-rate hike, and squeeze households.

4%Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#119010h 1m

Scotiabank EconomicsbullishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Still, he flagged that higher oil prices are “having a positive effect on growth” and repeated a bias toward raising their inflation forecast in the upcoming October MPR which he has previously indicated.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11918h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That forecast has largely played out, with oil averaging $92 between 1 July and 15 October.

$92Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11928h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTI2025

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Moreover, key US allies in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are coping financially, with Saudi oil revenues roughly flat and UAE revenues higher than in 2025 (Figure 2).

2025Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11938h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Across all three scenarios, energy supplies face increasing disruption risks, suggesting oil prices should remain elevated in the absence of conflict resolution.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11948h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Markets also appear to assume that oil prices will fall significantly once the war ends.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11958h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Alternative supply routes face the risk of missile attacks, inventory drawdowns are reaching their limits, and speculation is growing that China could resume higher oil imports.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11968h 12m

State StreetneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

State Street sees the Middle East conflict as nearer the endgame, but expects another WTI crude oil price spike before de-escalation sets in, implying an overall bullish stance on oil prices.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

English source evidence

• We are nearer the endgame, with another oil price spike expected before de-escalation sets in.

#11978h 12m

State StreetbullishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIshort-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This implies not only higher oil prices, but also higher short-term rates than previously priced and a stronger near-term US dollar.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11987h 54m

RBC EconomicsneutralunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

As expected, energy inflation accelerated as gasoline and furnace oil prices rose from August, while food inflation continued to moderate.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#11997h 39m

InvescobullishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We also watch for signs of a reacceleration in economic activity, which could occur with a resolution of the oil shocks, and/or a rally in bond prices.

Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 88

#12004d

MUFGbearishunclassifiedCrude Oil (WTI) · WTIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Brent futures are trading lower from the open but have held onto levels above USD 105/b.

105Crude Oil (WTI)★★★Heat 50 · 12 inst.Authority 84Fresh 57

Central banks and public institutions

These links group reports by the institution discussed in the content, not by who published the report.

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Bank Indonesia Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of the Treasury Eurostat Office for National Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Central banks and public institutions