Daily Treasury Outlook (13 October 2026)

Key arguments

• Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh airport, and continued tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices on renewed supply risk.
• Cleveland Fed President Hammack advocated moving relatively quickly toward a restrictive stance, favoring smaller and earlier adjustments over larger hikes later.
• Memory-chip weakness followed China's CXMT progress on a denser DRAM design and plans for a new server-memory product by year-end, raising competition concerns for established producers.
• India's September CPI broadened: headline 5.5% YoY, food 7.7%, transport 5.0%, core 4.6%, on higher vegetable prices and weak monsoon conditions.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered a hawkish speech yesterday, arguing that the Federal Reserve should move relatively quickly towards a restrictive monetary policy stance, with smaller and earlier adjustments being preferable to waiting and potentially requiring larger hikes later.
2. In Europe, Germany will release its final September CPI figures, while ECB officials Elderson and Lane, along with the B oE’s Dhingra, are scheduled to speak.
3. In the energy sector, Vena Energy outlined plans to invest PHP52bn over the next two years in renewable energy projects, targeting up to 1.29 gigawatts of additional power generation capacity in line with the government’s renewable energy targets of 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040. · 2030