Policy and research about Bureau of Labor Statistics. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
US September headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM, above OCBC's 0.5% call, while core matched at 0.3% MoM; headline reached 3.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY. Motor fuel rose 9.3% MoM and contributed 0.36ppt, over half the monthly increase. Shelter added 0.14ppt; recreation…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
OCBC Research argues the 2026 US midterms are a contest of weakness: Democrats are favoured to win both chambers, with the Democratic-sweep scenario carrying a 62% implied probability on Polymarket, but dissatisfaction with Republicans, not enthusiasm for…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m, above the 0.2% consensus. The report argues that shelter inflation stabilizing near 3.2% y/y has removed a key source of disinflationary momentum, leaving core CPI trending sideways and inflation likely to stay elevated near…
September core CPI rose 0.33% m/m SA and headline CPI 0.65%, both above consensus on core, lifting core y/y to 2.6% and headline to 3.7%. Core goods (+0.3%) and core services ex-housing (+0.4%) show pass-through from commodities and tariffs. PCE is tracking…
SMBC forecasts tomorrow's US CPI at 0.5% headline and 0.2% core. Although 31% of small businesses (net) are raising prices, the historical link between that NFIB series and inflation breadth broke down in 2024, likely due to weakening wage growth and high…
RBC Economics' October 2026 outlook shows policy rates and bond yields across seven economies. The Fed funds midpoint is projected to rise from 3.625% in late 2025 to 4.38% by Q3-26 and stay there through 2027. The Bank of Canada cuts to 2.25% by Q4-25, then…