Policy and research about Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates 25bp in November, citing cost-plus pricing behaviour, pass-through of non-labour costs and above-average award wage increases that keep demand ahead of supply. Australian unemployment held at 4.7%…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
Scotiabank's weekly preview argues Canadian core inflation remains at or above the BoC's 2% target, with traditional core running near 3% m/m SAAR for four straight months and another firm print expected, supporting the view that policy is too loose. BoC…
The dollar gave back gains made after a stronger-than-expected September US CPI, with the index falling from a year-to-date high of 102.95 toward 102.00. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18bps to 4.95% post-CPI before retreating to near 4.70%. MUFG…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
Scotiabank Economics forecasts a Bank of Canada hike of 100bp to a 3.25% terminal rate and two more Fed hikes to a 4.5% fed funds target. US September CPI is called at 0.6% m/m headline and 0.3% core, with the FOMC likely to skip October. Governor Macklem…
MUFG holds that more volatile market conditions remain the key risk. G10 FX volatility has retraced after spiking as the dollar strengthened on surging sovereign bond yields. MUFG judges risks skewed toward a further leg up in yields. On the Middle East,…