Policy and research about United States Department of the Treasury. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
US bonds and equities stayed volatile as TSMC's cautious AI outlook and a 1.3% September PPI rise, the largest monthly gain in four and a half years, followed a hot CPI print. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.09%, near a three-week low, as risk…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
US September producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m, the largest since March 2022, with energy up 10.8% and core PPI up 0.7%; retail sales rose 0.8% but control-group sales gained only 0.1%. Equities rotated out of AI and chip names into healthcare, financials and…
Brent crude holds above USD 105/b even as prices drift about 0.6% lower to USD 105.33/b, with WTI down 0.7% at USD 97.30/b and on track for a near 6% weekly gain after Hurricane Isaias. EIA data show a 300k b/d US production drop, an 8.6m bbl fall in…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…
Brent trades near USD 104.70/b and WTI near USD 94.32/b as demand concerns offset Middle East geopolitical risk; the IEA now sees 2026 oil demand falling 2.6m b/d. Gold slumped over 1.3% to USD 4,105/oz after US September core CPI accelerated to 2.6% y/y,…
A hot September US CPI briefly lifted short-dated Treasury yields and the dollar, but the move reversed within hours as investors focused on a sell-off in debt issued by high-profile AI companies, notably Coreweave's 2032 bonds at 78 cents. ING reads the…
A hot US CPI initially lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, but both reversed sharply lower, with the 10-year yield closing below 5.10%. US equities sold off, challenging the usual dollar-risk correlation. Weak Australian jobs data and softer risk sentiment…
September US headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, with gasoline up 34.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked 16bp before reversing to about 4.73%, and the 10-year fell below 5.11% as weak risk sentiment drove a haven bid.…
Westpac's October 2026 Outlook says markets have had little respite: bond yields have jumped, led by US 10-year benchmarks up 27bps above 5% and French bonds up 40bps, driven by real yields after the Fed's September hike. Westpac expects one more Fed hike,…
ING argues EUR/USD will remain in a 1.10-1.15 range over the next three to six months, as a hawkish Fed and ECB repricing tied to French fiscal concerns keep real rate differentials at their widest since 2022. Neither driver looks set to reverse soon. A…