Policy and research about European Central Bank. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
Eurostat's final September estimate put euro area headline HICP at 3.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m, above Natixis' 3.5% call but matching the flash. Energy surged 18.9% y/y and 4.0% m/m, contributing 1.7pp and overtaking services as the largest driver. Core held at…
Czech industrial producer prices rose 3.7% YoY and 1.2% MoM in September, beating expectations, while agricultural prices fell 7.2% YoY but rose 3.2% MoM. ING expects industrial PPI growth to peak above 6% in January and agricultural PPI above 12% by…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
MUFG notes UK August GDP rose 0.1% M/M, defying its -0.2% forecast, lifting the 3m/3m rate to 0.7% and annual growth above 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound, driven by professional services and IT. MUFG tracks 2026 average growth at 1.5%,…
Belgium's coalition failed to agree a three-year €10bn savings package, chiefly blocked by one party's opposition to raising standard VAT from 21% to 22%. The general policy statement was postponed; focus shifts to a 2027 budget with €4bn savings, ideally…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
Next week brings rate decisions in Hungary, Turkey and Kazakhstan plus Polish industrial output, labour market and retail sales data. ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to hold, a 100bp Turkish cut to 36%, and a 25bp cut to 16.00% in Kazakhstan on 23…
MUFG reports the USD is on course to weaken this week, ending four straight weekly gains. After jumping to a fresh year-to-date high on stronger September US CPI, the dollar quickly gave back those gains. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates this month;…
Fed Chair Warsh gave no policy guidance, which markets read as endorsing current pricing; the October hike probability dropped from 26% to 14% and the 2-year yield fell 3-4bps. The dollar was broadly unchanged. Warsh dwelt on AI, calling it a near-term…
MUFG expects the Philippine central bank to raise its policy rate 25bp to 5.25% on higher oil prices and Super El Niño risk, while the Bank of Korea is seen holding at 3.00% after back-to-back hikes. Bank Indonesia is widely expected to hold at 5.75%, though…