Are we there yet? Bull market may have more miles
中文标题
我们到了吗？牛市或许还有更多路程
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Invesco argues the S&P 500 bull market has slowed but is not ending, despite uncomfortably strong CPI/PPI, Fed tightening and selective credit stress. Leverage in AI infrastructure is rising — CoreWeave unsecured yields near 15% — yet high-yield spread widening is about half spread-driven and high-grade spreads remain tight. Contained long-term inflation expectations, a Treasury rally and dollar resilience suggest limited loss of confidence in US assets. The author favors quality credit and defensive equities.
- Institution
- Invesco
- Published
- 10/19/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · US 10Y Treasury · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- Credit stress is concentrated in speculative, leveraged AI-linked borrowers rather than broad credit markets; high-grade spreads remain tight.
- Recent hot CPI/PPI did not derail Treasuries, implying hikes were priced and long-term inflation expectations stay anchored.
- Leverage plus Fed tightening typically slows the economy, a sign the cycle is later-stage but not finished.
- Positioning favors higher-quality credit and defensive equity sectors, with attention to oil-shock resolution or a bond rally.
Key numbers
- S&P 500 return since Oct 2022 trough
- 128.15%
- CoreWeave unsecured debt yield
- ~15%
- Share of high-yield cost rise from wider spreads since June
- ~half
- S&P 500 prior peak-to-trough decline ended
- Oct 12, 2022
Main risks
- Further spread widening in AI-related debt could spread to higher-quality credit.
- Persistently strong inflation could force more Fed tightening and deepen an economic slowdown.
- Oil shocks or a loss of confidence in US assets could reverse the Treasury and dollar signals.
Corresponding source evidence
Recent inflation data has been uncomfortably strong, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained, and concerns about confidence in US assets may be limited.
Yields on some of its unsecured debt have climbed to roughly 15%, while the cost of insuring its debt against default has risen sharply.4 Since June, wider credit spreads have accounted for roughly half of the increase in high-yield borrowing costs.5 The rise may no longer simply be a rates story.
Importantly, longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained.9 The recent rally in US Treasuries and resilience of the US dollar10 suggests to me concerns about confidence in US assets may be limited.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Invesco on 10/19/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/19/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction