Policy and research about Federal Reserve. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
MUFG keeps a cautious IDR bias, expecting USD/IDR at 18,350 in Q4 2026 and 18,500 in Q1 2027. Drivers include elevated US yields, an oil-driven trade balance squeeze, a harder Bank Indonesia trade-off and MSCI's consultation on reclassifying Indonesia from…
Westpac lowered its New Zealand 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.7%yr, citing higher assumed energy prices and a steeper near-term path for long-term interest rates that weigh on consumption and residential investment. A weaker NZ dollar…
Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates 25bp in November, citing cost-plus pricing behaviour, pass-through of non-labour costs and above-average award wage increases that keep demand ahead of supply. Australian unemployment held at 4.7%…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
Mexico dominates next week's Latam calendar with retail sales, bi-weekly October CPI, unemployment and August IGAE activity data. Headline bi-weekly inflation is forecast at 0.5% m/m and 3.7% y/y, with core at 0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Activity is expected to…
US bonds and equities stayed volatile as TSMC's cautious AI outlook and a 1.3% September PPI rise, the largest monthly gain in four and a half years, followed a hot CPI print. Yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.09%, near a three-week low, as risk…
FX markets are caught between hot inflation, which argues for tighter Fed policy, and an AI-related tech selloff that could force a softer stance. ING expects the dollar to consolidate near recent highs, sees DXY capped at 102.40/50, and flags defensive Swiss…
SMBC's October 2026 US macro forecast projects real GDP growth slowing from 4.0% annualized in 2026 Q3 to 2.3% by 2027 Q4, with Q4/Q4 growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2026 Q4 to 2.5% by 2027 Q4. The…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
US September producer prices jumped 1.3% m/m, the largest since March 2022, with energy up 10.8% and core PPI up 0.7%; retail sales rose 0.8% but control-group sales gained only 0.1%. Equities rotated out of AI and chip names into healthcare, financials and…
Brent crude holds above USD 105/b even as prices drift about 0.6% lower to USD 105.33/b, with WTI down 0.7% at USD 97.30/b and on track for a near 6% weekly gain after Hurricane Isaias. EIA data show a 300k b/d US production drop, an 8.6m bbl fall in…
Fed Chair Warsh refused to prejudge upcoming meetings or offer forward guidance, while repeating upbeat US outlook views. BoC Governor Macklem said the Bank has not yet raised rates but is asking whether energy-driven inflation will force a hike. US Commerce…