ASML and TSMC earnings Can they restore confidence in the AI trade

中文标题

ASML与台积电财报：能否重振AI交易的信心

Saxo Bank10/13/2026updated 10/17/2026

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Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ASML (14 Oct) and TSMC (15 Oct) report amid a semiconductor selloff driven by higher bond yields, geopolitical risk and AI capex doubts. TSMC already posted Q3 revenue of NT$1.49tn, up about 51% year-on-year. ASML plans roughly 65 low-NA EUV units in 2026, rising 30% to about 85 in 2027 and potentially around 110 in 2028. Forward guidance, not Q3 beats, will decide whether AI confidence returns.

Institution: Saxo Bank
Published: 10/13/2026
Research topic: Semiconductors · US 10Y Treasury
Time horizon: 2027 · 2026

Semiconductors · SOX US 10Y Treasury · US10Y

Key arguments

Strong demand alone may no longer sustain the chip rally; valuation concerns and higher yields have driven a selloff.
ASML's capacity targets and delivery outlook now matter more than volatile quarterly orders for gauging AI equipment demand.
TSMC's 3nm/2nm and CoWoS capacity, plus 2027 customer commitments, are central to whether AI chip demand is durable.
Pricing power at ASML and TSMC's 65-67% gross margin guidance are new profitability swing factors alongside revenue growth.

Key numbers

TSMC Q3 revenue: NT$1.49tn, up about 51% year-on-year
ASML low-NA EUV output 2026: approximately 65 machines
ASML capacity 2027: +30% to around 85 units
ASML potential capacity 2028: around 110 machines annually
TSMC gross margin guidance: 65-67%

Main risks

Unchanged or cautious ASML capacity guidance or softer TSMC margins could disappoint even after strong Q3 results.
Higher bond yields, export restrictions and Taiwan-related geopolitical risk could keep weighing on valuations.
ASML execution risk: shortening lead times and scaling output without margin dilution.

Corresponding source evidence

• Strong results could help restore confidence in the AI trade, but with expectations already elevated, investors will be looking for evidence that earnings growth can continue into 2027. · 2027
TSMC has already reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up around 51% year-on-year and above its previous guidance.
ASML expects to produce approximately 65 low-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines in 2026 and plans to increase capacity by 30% to around 85 units in 2027. · 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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