Policy and research about Bureau of Economic Analysis. The publishing institution remains a separate field on every report.
SMBC's October 2026 US macro forecast projects real GDP growth slowing from 4.0% annualized in 2026 Q3 to 2.3% by 2027 Q4, with Q4/Q4 growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease from 3.2% in 2026 Q4 to 2.5% by 2027 Q4. The…
Non-energy import prices rose 6.0% y/y in September, the fastest since 2022, with capital goods up 8.4% y/y, the fastest since December 1987. SMBC attributes this to the AI buildout plus an effective tariff rate that has climbed to 9% from a post-substitution…
September producer prices rose 1.3% m/m and core PPI 0.7% m/m, both more than double consensus, while headline retail sales gained 0.8% versus 0.3% expected. SMBC tracks 3.4% QoQar real PCE growth (revised up 0.1pp) and 4.0% Q3 GDP. Despite Fed pushback on an…
Sovereign bonds are rallying while equities waver, with Treasury yields down 6–10bps in a bull flattener and the US 10-year 22bps below its peak ten days ago. The article questions whether this is a durable rotation into bonds or a brief hiccup. It previews…
MUFG argues AI's capital-intensive expansion has become a singular secular theme pushing global capital markets into a new regime. Combined annual debt and equity issuance is seen exceeding $5 trillion in 2026 (equity $462bn, debt $3.6tn annualized), while…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
Rising US Treasury yields are being read two ways: as an approaching debt crisis or as an economy resilient enough to support higher rates. The author finds no crisis signals—the dollar is firm, inflation expectations contained, and credit spreads mostly…
OCBC's weekly macro view sees global demand stabilising unevenly, led by AI investment. The Fed keeps further rate hikes in play, supporting the USD but capping breakout odds, while French fiscal fears cap EUR upside. Indonesia's headline CPI rose to 3.3% YoY…
The Fed is expected to hike an additional 80bp through December 2027, per SOFR futures, while PCE inflation reaches 3.4% and core PCE 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026. GDP is forecast at 2.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with unemployment near 4.2% and payroll growth cooling…
Schwab expects the Fed to raise rates only modestly, with a base case of two more hikes followed by a pause, since today's inflation is driven largely by supply constraints rather than excess demand. The AI capex boom supports growth and earnings, potentially…
SMBC's October 2026 outlook sees real GDP growth decelerating from 2.6% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with quarterly growth slowing from 3.9% in Q3 2026 to 1.6-1.7% through 2027. Core PCE inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in…
MUFG's October 2026 outlook sees an AI-driven investment boom of at least $400bn above pre-AI trend, heavily concentrated in computer equipment with annual growth near 80%, yet broad demand growth remains only 2.5–3.5%, like the shallow post-GFC expansion.…