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1252 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#6013d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

economics.td.com 2 Weekly Bottom Line As expected, the mortgage interest cost (MIC) com - ponent of CPI turned deflationary in the second half of 2026.

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6023d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We now expect MIC inflation to turn positive again in the coming months (Chart 2).

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6033d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A renewed increase would complicate the inflation outlook, particularly against an increasingly unfavourable backdrop for goods in - flation .

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6043d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Last month, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures began drifting above the 2% target.

2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6053d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Meanwhile, bond mar - kets reflected developments south of the border, where stronger-than-expected inflation reports contributed to a flattening of the yield curve.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6063d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

TD Economics notes that mortgage interest cost inflation is poised to turn positive again, measured in year-over-year % change, based on data from CREA.

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

Year/Year % Change Chart 2: Mortgage Interest Cost Inflation Poised to Turn Positive Again -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26 Sep 26 Source: CREA,TD Economics.

#6073d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

U.S. equities look to end the week in the red, as a hotter inflation report led to a significant AI-related selloff amid growing con - cerns that elevated interest rates could pose funding challenges and slow the AI buildout.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6083d

UBS CIOneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

US bond and equity markets have remained volatile over the past 24 hours as investors weigh mixed signals on the outlook for AI alongside further evidence of persistent US inflation.

24Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 100Fresh 60

#6093d

UBS CIOconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Medium- to long-duration quality bonds may also appreciate if tighter monetary policy slows growth or reduces longer-term inflation expectations, helping to offset weakness elsewhere in a portfolio.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 100Fresh 60

#6103d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Brazil will also publish mid-October CPI data on Friday which is expected to accelerate to 4.7 –4.8% from 4.5% but has little else of note during the week and local markets look more likely to take their cue from presidential election polls and global market sentiment.

4.7Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6113d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

On Thursday, we get H1-Oct CPI data that is expected to show an acceleration in headline inflation from 3.5% to 3.6 –3.7%, though with core inflation expected to hold at 3.7%.

1Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6123d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Services inflation is at its lowest in the post-pandemic period, but it’s difficult to spin that a 4.2% y/y reading here is a positive story, it being above the 2 –4% target band and only slowly moving towards the upper bound .

4.2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6133d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

For reference, the Citi economists survey median (with an update due Tuesday) expects core inflation to close next year at 3.8%.

3.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6143d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

CPI is forecast to post a gain of 0.2% m/m NSA, as per the polling convention, and 3.2% y/y (3.0% prior).

0.2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6153d

Scotiabank EconomicsbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core goods inflation is expected to rebound (chart 3) and core services inflation is expected to remain firm (chart 4).

3Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6163d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

More difficult to anticipate are the trimmed mean and weighted median measures of inflation in month-over-month terms rather than the slow-moving y/y compounded readings.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6173d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In fact, all measures of inflation are on or above the BoC’s 2% inflation target.

2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6183d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Scotiabank Economics' outlook for Canada's core CPI measures in 2026 shows the weighted median rising from 1.6 in Jan-2026 to 2.7 in Aug-2026, the trimmed mean from 1.1 to 2.8, and the traditional core from 0.8 to 3.9, with all three measures trending upward over the year; the traditional core briefly printed -0.8 in Mar-2026 before recovering, indicating gradually building core inflation pressure. On this trajectory, the stance on Canadian core inflation is bullish (upside).

7Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

Chart 7 Month Weighted Median Trimmed Mean Traditional Core Jan-2026 1.6 1.1 0.8 Feb-2026 1.6 0.6 1.5 Mar-2026 2.7 2.2 -0.8 Apr-2026 2.2 1.7 0.8 May-2026 1.6 2.8 3.1 Jun-2026 1.1 1.1 3.9 Jul-2026 2.7 2.8 3.1 Aug-2026 2.7 2.8 3.9 Canadian Core CPI Measures Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.

#6193d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Key in terms of the BoC's surveys will be whether their measures of inflation expectations follow fresher, higher-frequency readings such as the CFIB small business measure that have moved higher.

9Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

Chart 9 Chart 8 THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 16, 2026 Global Economics 4 Key in terms of the BoC’s surveys will be whether their measures of inflation expectations follow fresher, higher frequency r eadings such as the CFIB small business measure that have moved higher (chart 9).

#6203d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core producer prices will matter because they’ve been sending up smoke signals on inflation risk for quite a while (chart 10).

10Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6213d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Movements in producer prices ex-food and energy serve as a leading indicator of core consumer price inflation and could well partially explain the recently warmer readings with potentially more to come.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6223d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Scotiabank Economics states that the wait-and-see approach by potential buyers is expected to weigh on housing demand until trade and geopolitical tensions, along with their resulting impact on expected inflation and purchasing power conditions, start cooling down; this view implies downward pressure on inflation.

30Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

Therefore, this wait -and -see approach by potential buyers is expected to weigh on housing demand until trade and geopolitical tensions—along with their resulting impact on expected inflation and purchasing power conditions—start cooling down.-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 NL (St.

#6234d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Taken together, the CPI and PPI reports have prompted economists to revise higher their forecasts for the core PCE deflator in September, with expectations now centred in the 0.3%-0.4% M/M range.

0.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6244d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Her emphasis on upside price risks and still-accommodative financial conditions is consistent with further rate increases in the coming months, with the pace dependent on incoming economic and inflation data.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6254d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We will likely get a better understanding of that when numerous working groups will report findings, including on AI and inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6264d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

For inflation, the headline print was only up by 0.1ppts to 0.9%yoy in September with the core CPI unchanged at 1.0%yoy.

0.1Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6274d

MUFGbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIJune 2022

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Meanwhile, PPI inflation surged to 5.0%yoy, the fastest pace of expansion since June 2022.

5.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6283d

Wellington ManagementbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIApril 2014

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

However, consumer confidence slid during the quarter, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index deteriorating in September to its lowest level since April 2014 amid anxiety about high energy prices, rising interest rates, and elevated inflation.

2014Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6293d

Wellington ManagementbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

In response to upward inflation pressures and the risk of a lengthy period of elevated energy prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the second time this year.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6303d

Wellington ManagementbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Annual headline inflation rose more than expected to a three-year high of 3.8% in September, increasing pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates again by year end.

3.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6314d

Westpac / Westpac IQbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The September minutes were firmly on the hawkish side, with the discussion focussing on materialising upside risks to inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6324d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInear-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Still, with a clear focus on inflation risks – which also led us to revise up our near-term CPI forecasts in the October Market Outlook – we still expect a 25bp rate hike at the November meeting.

25bpInflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6334d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Over in the US, the headline CPI rose 0.6% as expected in September, taking the annual rate up to 3.7%yr.

0.6%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6344d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPImedium-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We hold a similar view, anticipating that one more hike by year end and a little time will bring inflation near the 2.0%yr medium-term target.

2.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6354d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis month

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

However, as discussed in this month’s Market Outlook, capacity pressures are likely to see inflation consistently above target, rather than below, in coming years – particularly if, as we suspect, capacity in the housing sector remains tight.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6364d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This is why we were puzzled by the passage in the RBA minutes this week suggesting that cost pressures reported in business surveys might imply that the unemployment rate consistent with inflation at target (the NAIRU) has risen.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6374d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Thus, Australia ended up with wages growth too low to be consistent with inflation at target, and the peculiar spectacle of a central bank governor complaining that wages growth was too low.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6384d

Westpac / Westpac IQbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The stronger the tendency towards cost-plus pricing, the worse the inflation response to a supply shock.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6394d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That adds up to economy-wide behaviour that looks a lot like firms (in aggregate) setting prices according to expected inflation (in aggregate), but under the hood something quite different is going on.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6404d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If firms’ beliefs about future economy-wide inflation do not matter much in their pricing decisions, then neither does the credibility of a central bank’s commitment to return inflation to target.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6414d

Westpac / Westpac IQbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The mechanism to get inflation down then must be simply to weaken demand enough to convince firms that cost-plus will not fly in the market.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6424d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

It does, however, imply that if supply shocks fade or even self-correct, so will high inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#6434d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This week we review some weak housing market data and revised economic forecasts for 2027 that imply higher inflation but more moderate growth.

2027Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58

#6445d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Underlying the move are expectations that inflation will prove persistent globally as well as a belief that the US’ tech sector leaves it best positioned to weather the storm.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 52

#6455d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIshort-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

New Zealand: Higher fuel costs and a weaker exchange rate have lifted the short-term inflation outlook while the economy has continued to grow through the Iran war.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 52

#6465d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

But a combination of ageing populations, rising labour costs, increasing electricity demand and technology sector developments imply Asia may provide less support to global disinflation over the decade ahead.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 52

#6474d

Commonwealth BankbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Persistent inflation has forced central banks to raise interest rates.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 52

#6484d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

September US inflation came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year and core inflation reaching 2.6%.

3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 52

#6494d

Saxo BankbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Equity weakness is encouraging demand for government bonds, pushing yields lower despite inflation risks.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 52

#6504d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Sticky inflation, fiscal risks and heavy government borrowing could keep longer-term yields elevated.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 52

Central banks and public institutions

These links group reports by the institution discussed in the content, not by who published the report.

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Bank Indonesia Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of the Treasury Eurostat Office for National Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Central banks and public institutions