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1224 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#55115h 27m

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

So, for now we continue to think that despite the higher near-term inflation outlook the RBNZ will stick with the strategy communicated in the September Monetary Policy Statement, i.e. that at the 28 October meeting it will pause to assess the impact of this year’s 50bps of policy tightening, before considering a further upward adjustment in December.

28Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 91

#55215h 27m

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Given higher prices, at face value this points to a weak quarter for volumes (this week’s CPI report will cast more light on pricing behaviour during the quarter).

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 91

#5532d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This is why we were puzzled by the passage in the RBA minutes this week suggesting that cost pressures reported in business surveys might imply that the unemployment rate consistent with inflation at target (the NAIRU) has risen.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5542d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Thus, Australia ended up with wages growth too low to be consistent with inflation at target, and the peculiar spectacle of a central bank governor complaining that wages growth was too low.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5552d

Westpac / Westpac IQbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The stronger the tendency towards cost-plus pricing, the worse the inflation response to a supply shock.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5562d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That adds up to economy-wide behaviour that looks a lot like firms (in aggregate) setting prices according to expected inflation (in aggregate), but under the hood something quite different is going on.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5572d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If firms’ beliefs about future economy-wide inflation do not matter much in their pricing decisions, then neither does the credibility of a central bank’s commitment to return inflation to target.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5582d

Westpac / Westpac IQbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The mechanism to get inflation down then must be simply to weaken demand enough to convince firms that cost-plus will not fly in the market.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5592d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

It does, however, imply that if supply shocks fade or even self-correct, so will high inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5602d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPImedium-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We hold a similar view, anticipating that one more hike by year end and a little time will bring inflation near the 2.0%yr medium-term target.

2.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5612d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis month

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

However, as discussed in this month’s Market Outlook , capacity pressures are likely to see inflation consistently above target, rather than below, in coming years – particularly if, as we suspect, capacity in the housing sector remains tight.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 80

#5623d

NatixisbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

AI financing concerns outweigh stronger-than-expected inflation data, and the CPI report allowed us to complete our scaling into 2-year longs, reflecting an overall bullish stance on 2-year duration.

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 65

English source evidence

► AI financing concerns outweigh stronger than expected inflation data, as the CPI report gave us the ability to complete our scaling into 2yr longs.

#5633d

NatixisbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation pressures also persisted with anet 31% raising selling prices in September and the same net share planning further price increases over the next three months, while the share citing inflation as their single most important problem jumped 4points.

31%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 65

#5643d

NatixisbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Given the post-CPI selloff, these levels were hit and we now stand with an average entry of 4.88%.

4.88%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 65

#5653d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was recorded at 2.5% yoy, aligning both the flash estimate and our own projection.

2.5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 64

#5663d

NatixisbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

By contrast, headline inflation was lower in Germany (3.3%) and France (3.4%), while core inflation stood at 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

3.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 64

#5673d

NatixisneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Considering the final inflation estimates and subsequent price developments, we now expect headline inflation to average 3.0% year on year and core inflation to average 2.4% in 2026.

3.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 64

#5683d

NatixisbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Services inflation stood at 2.8% yoy (-0.1% mom), and its contribution eased to 1.3 pp, mainly due to lower contributions from transport services.

2.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 64

#5693d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

At the same time, upside risks to inflation from higher fuel prices and a severe El Niño could add to domestic price pressures.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5703d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

BSP is likely to err on the side of caution and maintain a tightening bias to tame inflation expectations until it’s confident prices are on a path back to target.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5713d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation remains above target and economic growth is relatively resilient.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5723d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation in Saudi Arabia remains contained, rising by 1.9% y/y in September and in line with its pace for the rest of the year.

1.9%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5733d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Trading was volatile following a sharp jump in producer prices, which added to inflation concerns after Wednesday’s hotter -than-expected CPI report.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5743d

OCBC ResearchbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIMarch 2022

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

On the data front, US producer inflation surprised sharply to the upside, rising by 1.3% MoM in September from 0.5% in the previous month, marking its largest monthly increase since March 2022.

1.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5753d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Later in the day, the eurozone will publish its final September CPI, following a flash estimate of 3.8% YoY, while the US will release September industrial production and import price index.

3.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5763d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Higher inflation will push up the wage bill across government.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5773d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Chris Turner EUR: Inflation to be confirmed at 3.8% today Today's eurozone data should see September CPI confirmed at 3.8% – well above the European Central Bank's 2% target.

3.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5783d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Markets are still reeling from the hawkish set of inflation forecasts delivered at the ECB September press conference, a key driver of the near 75bp of further tightening expected from the ECB.

75bpInflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5793d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

And yes, with these underlying price pressures set to filter through to CPI sooner or later, consumers may soon have to dig a little deeper into their pockets.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5803d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Rising input costs put pressure on food prices Source: CZSO, ING, Macrobond Taking all this on board, our forecast of headline inflation averaging 3.4% next year and peaking at around 4% in February looks about right.

3.4%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5813d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Recent inflation data has boosted the likelihood of a rate cut.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5823d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Given the September CPI reading and domestic demand weakness, we expect the central bank to cut the policy rate by 100bp in the October MPC meeting to 36%.

100bpInflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5833d

ING THINKbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIlong-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

At the same time, a hold remains plausible, as the recent slowdown in CPI was overwhelmingly food-driven, while a renewed acceleration in overall inflation, taking it further away from the 5% long-term target, remains a risk.

5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5843d

SMBCbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The post-CPI rally suggests the economy’s sensitivity to the level of rates may have increased.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5853d

Saxo BankbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The two-year yield fell from a post-CPI high of 4.95% to 4.73%, leaving it six basis points lower on the week, while the ten-year benchmark reversed from 5.32% to 5.08%, a weekly decline of 16 basis points.

4.95%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 60

#5863d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

MUFG holds a neutral view on inflation without stating a clear direction: the focus in Europe next week will be on UK data, including jobs and inflation, and the flash October PMIs.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

• What we’re watching next week :The focus in Europe next week will be on UK data, including jobs and inflation, and the flash October PMIs.

#5873d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Beyond the usual growth and inflation signals, we will be watching for any evidence in the surveys that budget uncertainty in the UK and France is weighing on business sentiment.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5883d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

There are signs that AI adoption is occurring relatively fast in the UK’s services -orientated economy Private sector hiring remains subdued despite relatively firm economic activity What we’re watching next week Flash PMIs and UK inflation: Next week will bring a busy run of UK data ahead of the Budget on 28 October.

28Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5893d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Both consumer and producer price inflation surprised to the upside, and unlike last month, there was no single area clearly skewing the numbers higher.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5903d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Rental costs, which make up a whopping 44% of the core inflation basket, should continue to gradually ease given the cool state of the US housing market.

44%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5913d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Put that together, and it’s not difficult to see how inflation gets much closer to 2% by the second quarter of next year, when the energy story also starts to filter out of the annual comparison.

2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5923d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation (Wed): We expect headline CPI to rise to 3.5%, on a path towards 4% around the turn of the year.

3.5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5933d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

TD Economics notes that next week will bring a flurry of economic data, including the latest inflation report, without indicating a directional view on the inflation data itself, implying a neutral stance.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

• Next week will bring a flurry of economic data, including the latest inflation report.

#5943d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2026

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

economics.td.com 2 Weekly Bottom Line As expected, the mortgage interest cost (MIC) com - ponent of CPI turned deflationary in the second half of 2026.

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5953d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We now expect MIC inflation to turn positive again in the coming months (Chart 2).

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5963d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

A renewed increase would complicate the inflation outlook, particularly against an increasingly unfavourable backdrop for goods in - flation .

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5973d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Last month, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures began drifting above the 2% target.

2%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5983d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Meanwhile, bond mar - kets reflected developments south of the border, where stronger-than-expected inflation reports contributed to a flattening of the yield curve.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

#5993d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

TD Economics notes that mortgage interest cost inflation is poised to turn positive again, measured in year-over-year % change, based on data from CREA.

2Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

English source evidence

Year/Year % Change Chart 2: Mortgage Interest Cost Inflation Poised to Turn Positive Again -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26 Sep 26 Source: CREA,TD Economics.

#6003d

TD Economics / TD SecuritiesbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

U.S. equities look to end the week in the red, as a hotter inflation report led to a significant AI-related selloff amid growing con - cerns that elevated interest rates could pose funding challenges and slow the AI buildout.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 60

Central banks and public institutions

These links group reports by the institution discussed in the content, not by who published the report.

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Bank Indonesia Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of the Treasury Eurostat Office for National Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration

Views

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Central banks and public institutions