Institutional Wire

Views

1281 evidence-backed views published in the latest 7 days, newest first with same-topic and same-event views grouped together.

Each line is one claim extracted from one report: what the publisher expects, in which direction, on which asset, over what horizon. How views are extracted · By asset · By topic

#6513d

Wellington ManagementbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Annual headline inflation rose more than expected to a three-year high of 3.8% in September, increasing pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates again by year end.

3.8%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6524d

Westpac / Westpac IQbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The September minutes were firmly on the hawkish side, with the discussion focussing on materialising upside risks to inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6534d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInear-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Still, with a clear focus on inflation risks – which also led us to revise up our near-term CPI forecasts in the October Market Outlook – we still expect a 25bp rate hike at the November meeting.

25bpInflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6544d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Over in the US, the headline CPI rose 0.6% as expected in September, taking the annual rate up to 3.7%yr.

0.6%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6554d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPImedium-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We hold a similar view, anticipating that one more hike by year end and a little time will bring inflation near the 2.0%yr medium-term target.

2.0%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6564d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis month

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

However, as discussed in this month’s Market Outlook, capacity pressures are likely to see inflation consistently above target, rather than below, in coming years – particularly if, as we suspect, capacity in the housing sector remains tight.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6574d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis week

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This is why we were puzzled by the passage in the RBA minutes this week suggesting that cost pressures reported in business surveys might imply that the unemployment rate consistent with inflation at target (the NAIRU) has risen.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6584d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Thus, Australia ended up with wages growth too low to be consistent with inflation at target, and the peculiar spectacle of a central bank governor complaining that wages growth was too low.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6594d

Westpac / Westpac IQbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The stronger the tendency towards cost-plus pricing, the worse the inflation response to a supply shock.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6604d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

That adds up to economy-wide behaviour that looks a lot like firms (in aggregate) setting prices according to expected inflation (in aggregate), but under the hood something quite different is going on.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6614d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

If firms’ beliefs about future economy-wide inflation do not matter much in their pricing decisions, then neither does the credibility of a central bank’s commitment to return inflation to target.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6624d

Westpac / Westpac IQbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The mechanism to get inflation down then must be simply to weaken demand enough to convince firms that cost-plus will not fly in the market.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6634d

Westpac / Westpac IQconditionalunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

It does, however, imply that if supply shocks fade or even self-correct, so will high inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 59

#6644d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

This week we review some weak housing market data and revised economic forecasts for 2027 that imply higher inflation but more moderate growth.

2027Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 58

#6655d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Underlying the move are expectations that inflation will prove persistent globally as well as a belief that the US’ tech sector leaves it best positioned to weather the storm.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6665d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIshort-term

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

New Zealand: Higher fuel costs and a weaker exchange rate have lifted the short-term inflation outlook while the economy has continued to grow through the Iran war.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6675d

Westpac / Westpac IQneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

But a combination of ageing populations, rising labour costs, increasing electricity demand and technology sector developments imply Asia may provide less support to global disinflation over the decade ahead.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6685d

Commonwealth BankbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Persistent inflation has forced central banks to raise interest rates.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6694d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

September US inflation came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI accelerating to 3.7% year-on-year and core inflation reaching 2.6%.

3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6704d

Saxo BankbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Equity weakness is encouraging demand for government bonds, pushing yields lower despite inflation risks.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6714d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Sticky inflation, fiscal risks and heavy government borrowing could keep longer-term yields elevated.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6724d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The key data to monitor will be employment, consumer spending, business investment and whether inflation pressures continue to broaden.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6735d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core CPI was also firmer than expected, rising 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY.

0.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6745d

OCBC ResearchbearishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The deterioration in sentiment was driven by concerns over the outlook for interest rates and inflation, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, and elevated fuel costs.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6754d

MUFGneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

While subdued housing costs should continue to contain headline inflation, elevated food and transport costs and imported inflation risks could limit the pace of further disinflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6764d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Headline CPI rose to 3.7% year on year from 3.4%, above the 3.6% forecast, with the monthly print at 0.6%.

3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6774d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core inflation increased to 2.6%, with monthly core steady at 0.3%.

2.6%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6784d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Chris Turner PLN: Delayed NBP tightening leaves the zloty vulnerable Final Polish inflation was revised slightly higher to 4.1% from the 4.0% September flash estimate.

4.1%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6794d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Our core inflation forecast is unchanged at 3.1%, down from 3.3%, with today’s release expected to confirm the figure.

3.1%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6804d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

All agree that the new forecast and pace of disinflation next year will be decisive.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6814d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Wednesday's market gyrations following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report highlighted a potentially important shift in investor sentiment, with implications extending well beyond the bond market.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6824d

Saxo BankbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

However, the accompanying weakness in technology stocks raises a broader question: Are investors becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the equity rally than the immediate outlook for inflation and interest rates?

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6834d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We, like the market, expect a 25bp rate hike at the December meeting given inflation remains elevated and unemployment is low.

25bpInflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6844d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Given our inflation and jobs projections, we do not expect additional policy tightening in 2027, despite the market pricing in a further 50bp of hikes.

2027,Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6854d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The Bank’s November inflation forecasts are likely to show CPI briefly above 4%, and that is likely to be the catalyst for a hike, citing previous research that inflation at these levels is historically more likely to trigger second-round effects.

4%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6864d

Commonwealth BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Clarke noted, in September, the RBA still viewed the jobs market as a little too strong to bring inflation back to target.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6874d

Commonwealth BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Deputy Governor Hauser speaks on 21 October, which Clarke said will provide an opportunity to clarify the RBA’s response to the latest data, followed by the release of quarterly inflation figures on 28 October.

21Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6884d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Core CPI stayed unchanged at 0.3% MoM which matched our forecast.

0.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6894d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The headline print was slightly above our 0.5% forecast in our preview, while core CPI was in line with our 0.3% call.

0.5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6904d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

On an annual basis, headline inflation picked up to 3.7% YoY from 3.4%, slightly above our approximate 3.6% forecast, while core inflation rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4%, in line with our forecast.

3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6914d

OCBC ResearchbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

The upside surprise in headline inflation was largely driven by a sharper than expected increase in fuel prices, which more than offset softer than anticipated increases in food and household energy costs.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6924d

OCBC ResearchneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Fuel leads the rise in CPI Motor fuel prices rose 9.3% MoM in September, accelerating from 4.1% in August and well above our 4.9% forecast.

9.3%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6934d

Saxo BankneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Headline inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, above the 3.6% expected, energy-led, with core at 2.6%.

3.7%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 67Fresh 51

#6944d

Scotiabank EconomicsneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

US PPI TO FIRM UP PCE TRACKING US producer prices will further inform estimated PCE inflation.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6954d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation is still too high, pointing to another ECB rate hike, although quantitative tightening could be halted Higher energy and borrowing costs continue to weigh on the eurozone economic outlook October is the cruellest month October is budget season in Europe, when cash-strapped member states must show they can put their finances in order.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6964d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPIunspecified

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

Inflation is therefore likely to end the year above 4%.

4%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6974d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2022

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

They may still emerge, but we do not expect a repeat of the full-blown inflation wave of 2022-23.

2022Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6984d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPInext year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

We expect inflation to fall back to an average of 2.5% next year.

2.5%Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#6994d

ING THINKneutralunclassifiedInflation · CPI2027

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

With expected structural market support from credible budget plans and inflation hovering around 2.0-2.5% YoY in early 2027, we expect further easing to follow.

2.0Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

#7004d

ING THINKbullishunclassifiedInflation · CPIthis year

AI-generated analytical summary · not a direct translation

At the same time, broadening inflation pressures are reinforcing the case for further monetary tightening across most Asian economies Asia's economy remains supported by a robust AI investment cycle AI tailwinds continue, but momentum is moderating Asia's growth has remained resilient this year, outperforming expectations, largely driven by a stronger-than-expected AI investment cycle.

Inflation★★★Heat 50 · 16 inst.Authority 84Fresh 51

Central banks and public institutions

These links group reports by the institution discussed in the content, not by who published the report.

Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China Bank Indonesia Reserve Bank of Australia Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Canada Swiss National Bank Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Economic Analysis United States Department of the Treasury Eurostat Office for National Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration