Canadian Home Sales — September 2026GLOBAL ECONOMICS
中文标题
加拿大房屋销售 — 2026年9月 · 全球经济研究
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
National resale activity weakened in September: unit sales fell 2.3% m/m (sa), erasing nearly half of April–July gains, with a 7.7% y/y (nsa) decline. New listings eased 1.8% m/m. The sales-to-new listings ratio slipped to 48.8% and months of inventory rose to 4.9. The MLS HPI fell 0.4% m/m, its sharpest drop since February, and 3.4% y/y. Scotiabank attributes the wait-and-see stance to trade and geopolitical tensions, inflation fears and high financing uncertainty.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/16/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- year-end 2024 · long-term
Key arguments
- National resale conditions eased modestly in September, with both sales and new listings declining.
- The MLS HPI remains on its downward trend that began in March 2022, posting its strongest monthly decline since February.
- Trade and geopolitical tensions, alongside elevated new-built supply, are keeping buyers in a wait-and-see mode.
- Weakness is broad-based but uneven: roughly two-thirds of tracked local markets saw m/m sales declines, with Victoria, Sudbury and Barrie leading.
Key numbers
- National sales m/m (sa)
- -2.3%
- National sales y/y (nsa)
- -7.7%
- National new listings m/m (sa)
- -1.8%
- Sales-to-new listings ratio (sa)
- 48.8%
- MLS HPI m/m (sa) and y/y (nsa)
- -0.4% / -3.4%
Main risks
- Persistent trade and geopolitical tensions could further elevate inflation fears and mortgage financing uncertainty, prolonging the wait-and-see buyer stance.
- Above-average completions of newly built units may continue to soften conditions and pressure prices.
- Local market divergence: some markets (e.g., Thunder Bay, Saint John) remain sellers' markets, so national averages may mask localized stress.
Corresponding source evidence
Since sales declined at a slightly faster pace than new listings in September, the national sales -to-new listings ratio modestly eased from 49.1% (sa) in August to 48.8% in September, still trending in the lower half of the balanced national conditions range as it has been doing since the end of 2024.
· year-end 2024Therefore, this wait -and -see approach by potential buyers is expected to weigh on housing demand until trade and geopolitical tensions—along with their resulting impact on expected inflation and purchasing power conditions—start cooling down.-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 NL (St.
John's) 63.2 10.0 3.0 1.1 Sellers' 9.1 5.1 3.7 7.0 -8.1 1.7 A sales-to-new listings ratio below the long-term mean less than one deviation is considered a buyer's market and likely to see a flat or downward trend in prices over the next six months.
· long-term
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/16/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction