Emea fx talking october 2026

Key arguments

• The region's currencies have been hit by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, yet domestic stories are constructive and local rate hikes plus light foreign positioning can insulate them.
• The zloty has strengthened its correlation with EUR/USD, with the dollar now the key driver; medium-term upside remains on solid GDP, but risk balance has worsened as the NBP may hike less than priced.
• EUR/HUF could fall to 350-355 in a month on lower risk premium and ERM II credibility, but the subsequent easing cycle could put the forint on a mild depreciation path over 12 months.
• Higher equilibrium interest rates in the Czech Republic are warranted to prevent koruna weakness that would exacerbate domestic price pressures, while the ECB may turn hesitant over French fiscal concerns.

Corresponding source evidence

1. PLN has recently strengthened its correlation with EUR/USD, so the dollar’s future moves will be the key driver in the currency’s performance, while domestic factors are likely to take a back seat.
2. A significant drop in the risk premium and some insulation from geopolitical market turbulence could take EUR/HUF down to the 350-355 area over the next month. · next month
3. That said, the ECB may turn more hesitant despite elevated inflation, as concerns over French fiscal issues rekindle fears of another euro crisis.