Wage growth slows in September after August bounce
中文标题
8月反弹后，9月工资增长放缓
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
CommBank's Wage and Labour Insights show annual wage growth steady at 3.3% and quarterly growth unchanged at 0.8% in the three months to September 2026, while monthly annualised growth slowed to 3.3% from 3.5% in August. The bank says the Fair Work Commission's 4.75% award and minimum wage rise and higher actual and expected inflation have not materially lifted wages, easing RBA wage-inflation concerns. It retains a 0.9% Q3 Wage Price Index forecast and sees trend employment up around 20,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.6% in August and expected to rise further.
- Institution
- Commonwealth Bank
- Published
- 10/12/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- Q3 2026
Key arguments
- Annual wage growth held at 3.3% and quarterly growth at 0.8%, with monthly annualised growth easing to 3.3% from 3.5%.
- The 4.75% Fair Work Commission award and minimum wage rise produced only a short-lived August bump and a smaller impact than CBA initially forecast.
- Higher actual and expected inflation, including from the Middle East conflict, has not yet fed into broader wage setting, easing the risk of pure wage inflation for the RBA.
- CBA retains its 0.9% Q3 2026 Wage Price Index forecast and sees trend employment up around 20,000 in September, though labour supply is outpacing demand and unemployment is drifting higher.
Key numbers
- Annual wage growth
- 3.3%
- Quarterly wage growth
- 0.8%
- September monthly annualised wage growth
- 3.3% (from 3.5% in August)
- FWC award and minimum wage increase
- 4.75%
- CBA Q3 2026 Wage Price Index forecast
- 0.9%
Main risks
- Wage growth could re-accelerate if workers respond to higher actual and expected inflation with larger pay claims.
- Official ABS employment data have been stronger than CBA's Labour Insights, so the labour market picture may be more robust than the bank's series implies.
- Rising participation means labour supply outpacing demand, and CBA expects the unemployment rate to rise further from 4.6% in August.
Corresponding source evidence
• Annual wage growth held steady at 3.3%, while quarterly growth remained at 0.8%.
Despite the drop off in monthly growth, annual wage growth held firm at 3.3%, while quarterly wage growth also remained unchanged at 0.8% over the three months to September.
CommBank Economist Harry Ottley said while the lack of movement in the data may seem unremarkable, it meant there’s a clear takeaway for the RBA’s inflation fight.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Commonwealth Bank on 10/12/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction