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MUFG stays cautious on THB and keeps its USDTHB end-year forecast at 34.00. Thailand's electronics export surge is insufficient to offset a deteriorating 27-year-low terms of trade, weak Q2 GDP growth of 1.9% yoy, a 1.0% BoT policy rate, portfolio outflows…
The Fed hiked the fed funds rate by 25bp and Chair Warsh said the move had removed "a dose of accommodation", implying more tightening may follow. The median dot at 4.125% for 2026-2027 signals one more hike and no cuts until 2028. MUFG notes the hawkish bar…
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% unanimously, with the median dot signalling one more hike in 2026 and a higher longer-run neutral rate of 3.25%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.73% and the 10-year broke above 5%, lifting DXY 0.7% back above 100.…
Schwab's Short Interest Monitor highlights elevated and rising short interest in tech and emerging aerospace names. AST SpaceMobile drew shorts after missing Q2 estimates and delaying its continuous space-based cellular broadband launch to early 2027.…
The FOMC raised the fed funds rate 25bp in September to a 3.875% midpoint, matching expectations, and the updated dot plot points to at least one more hike by year-end. Revised projections show PCE inflation slowing from 3.7%yr in 2026 to 2.0%yr by 2029, with…
The FOMC unanimously raised the fed funds rate 25bp to a 3.875% midpoint, with guidance pointing to at least one more move by year-end and 8 of 18 forecasters flagging additional hike risk by end-2027. US 2-year yields rose 7bp and the 10-year topped 5%; the…
The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%.…
The Fed delivered a widely anticipated 25bp hike, leaving the long end broadly steady near 4.95%. ING maintains a bearish stance on long bonds, expecting the UST 10yr yield to break back above 5% and target 5.25%, supported by sticky inflation, fiscal…
The Fed raised the fed funds target 25bp by unanimous vote; the median dot implies one more hike in 2026 to 4.00-4.25% and none in 2027. Markets were disappointed the dot plot was not more forceful. Eight members wanted another 2027 hike versus six seeing no…
The FOMC raised the policy rate by 25bps to a 4.00% upper bound in a unanimous September decision, the first hike since 2023. Natixis views this as the path of least resistance that buys time to assess whether August's upside inflation surprise was temporary.…
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25bp to 3.75-4%, a unanimous decision, and its projections point to one more hike this year before holding at 4.125% through 2027. ING's base case is 'one and done' given labour slack, 3% wage growth and expected oil…
Ottawa expanded its immediate expensing framework so firms can fully deduct first-year depreciation on about 65% of capital assets, up from 15%, and made the policy permanent at a projected $36 billion cost over five years. TD estimates a 0.3-0.8% real GDP…
Peru's economy grew 3.6% y/y in July, above consensus and Scotiabank's 3.3% estimate, with 3.3% cumulative growth over 12 months. Non-primary sectors tied to domestic demand expanded nearly 5%, contributing 3.8 p.p., offsetting a ~1% contraction in primary…
Industry leaders propose moderating frontier AI development, but Julius Baer sees the investment cycle intact: hyperscaler-driven infrastructure spending and multi-year commitments continue, with inference and agentic applications supporting demand.…
US retail sales rose 1.2% MoM in August versus 0.8% expected, and the control group gained 1.4% versus 0.5% consensus, rebounding after an earlier-than-usual Amazon Prime Day shifted June and July patterns. Internet sales rose 2.6% MoM. ING says spending is…
The FOMC is widely expected to raise the federal funds rate 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, a test of Chair Kevin Warsh's consensus-building. Oil strength from the US-Iran conflict adds near-term inflation pressure, but resilient growth, robust earnings and AI investment…
Scotiabank expects the FOMC to hike 25bps on September 16, 2026, with 94 of 110 consensus forecasts agreeing, though the bank calls the case weak and expects dissenters. Markets are calm: bonds and stocks rally, oil is lower, the dollar little changed. The…
One S&P 500 session now costs the same as 30 days of volatility, with three tenors within 0.07 points. The S&P 500 has used 70% of its weekly expected move, the Nasdaq 100 fund 79%, and the VIX 121%, all before the Federal Reserve decision priced at a ~94%…
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate at 14.00% on 16 September 2026, matching expectations. The statement carried a subtle dovish shift: with headline CPI at 6.2% YoY, core at 5.5% and the soum providing disinflationary support, ING sees a…
Eurozone industrial production fell 0.1% month-on-month in July, matching June's 0.1% decline and leaving output broadly flat versus a year earlier. Capital goods and energy held up, but non-durable consumer goods were sharply weaker. Manufacturing is…