Uzbekistan dovish hold with 4q26 rate in sight
中文标题
乌兹别克斯坦偏鸽派按兵不动，4季度26%利率在望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate at 14.00% on 16 September 2026, matching expectations. The statement carried a subtle dovish shift: with headline CPI at 6.2% YoY, core at 5.5% and the soum providing disinflationary support, ING sees a modest 4Q26 rate cut as the base case. The CBRU is not signalling imminent easing, and robust domestic demand or imported inflation could delay it.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/16/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Gold
- Time horizon
- 2025 · March 2026
Key arguments
- The CBRU held at 14.00%, extending the pause begun in 1H25, but its September tone became more dovish than the July statement.
- Disinflation is broad: headline CPI slowed to 6.2% YoY in August from 6.4% in June–July and about 10% at the start of 2025; core eased to 5.5%.
- With the policy rate-inflation differential near 7.8pp, the highest in ING's CIS/CCA coverage, ING sees room for a modest 4Q26 cut as the base case.
- Robust domestic demand and imported inflation from elevated commodity, food and energy prices are the key risks that could delay easing.
Key numbers
- CBRU policy rate
- 14.00%
- Headline CPI (August, YoY)
- 6.2%
- Core inflation (YoY)
- 5.5%
- Policy rate-inflation differential
- ~7.8 percentage points
- 1H26 GDP growth (YoY)
- 8.5%
Main risks
- Stronger-than-expected domestic demand, with 1H26 GDP growth of 8.5% YoY versus a 6.6% full-year assumption, could make policymakers reluctant to ease.
- Renewed Middle East tensions, higher global commodity prices and hawkish shifts in core and regional rates could reduce room for cuts.
- Second-round effects from regulated tariff liberalisation remain a theoretical risk, though the 2024–25 cycle saw more limited pass-through than feared.
Corresponding source evidence
The September statement includes a subtle dovish shift, favouring a modest rate cut in 4Q26 as a base-case scenario.
Still, this view would be subject to domestic and external risks that cannot be neglected We see a modest rate cut in the fourth quarter as the most likely scenario following today's dovish hold from the CBRU 14.00 CBRU policy rate, % Unchanged As expected Why did the CBRU stay on hold?
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBRU) kept its policy rate unchanged at 14.00%, extending the pause that began in the first half of 2025.
· 2025
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/16/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction