Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
MUFG argues rising volatility could extend US dollar gains, focusing on French OAT underperformance versus Bunds. The OAT/Bund spread has widened 56bps (65%) since end-August, signalling heavy selling. Japanese investors have sold JPY 356bn of French debt in…
The RBI's October 7 decision is finely balanced, with consensus for a 25bp hike to 5.50% but split expectations; MUFG forecasts 50bp of hikes this cycle and sees a risk of 75bp given strong growth, abundant liquidity, firming credit, supportive fiscal policy,…
France's OAT sell-off has blown out the OAT/Bund spread more than expected, leaving EUR vulnerable to further decline. MUFG flags forced selling as the driver, and options flows show one of the most EUR-negative readings in recent periods, implying a…
MUFG's Henry Cook reviews France's draft 2027 budget, which targets a deficit cut from 5.4% to 5.0% of GDP in 2027 and a return to 3% by 2029. The 10Y OAT-Bund spread has widened to 150bp, the highest since 2012. MUFG is sceptical of the adjustment pace and…
MUFG's Q3 2026 review shows earnings absorbing a global duration selloff: Brent rose 42% to about $104, gold gained 3.7% to $4,517, and the 10-year UST yield climbed 68bp to 5.28%, with 30-year yields at multi-decade highs. The dollar firmed modestly and…
This weekly note reviews two developments in New Zealand: an upbeat Pre-Election Fiscal Update and a generally resilient September business confidence reading. No specific figures, forecasts or market calls are provided in the available text. The publication…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 US nonfarm payrolls at +90k, slightly above the 85k Bloomberg consensus and the 71k three-month average. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though a monthly uptick in job losses could push it to 4.2%. A…
US Treasuries fell for a seventh straight session, with the 10-year yield hitting 5.3% and the 30-year at a 24-year high, driven by Middle East conflict, robust US activity, AI-driven debt issuance and fiscal deficits. UBS CIO deems market pricing of nearly…
ING argues the US sustainability agenda has shifted from emissions targets and disclosure toward future-proofing: managing climate risk and capturing clean-technology opportunities. It cites potential US climate-related costs above $1tr for 2026-2030, a deep…
Chilean August GDP fell 1.0% y/y, driven by a 17.4% mining decline, making a 2026 contraction between -0.5% and 0.0% highly likely. Non-mining activity remains resilient, projected to expand 0.5%-1.0% despite supply shocks. Unemployment rose to 9.6% (9.4%…
France's budget buys time but leaves structural deficits unresolved, keeping OAT-Bund spreads at risk of widening from 130bp toward 150bp. History suggests the euro's muted reaction could reverse, with a 3% risk premium buildup implying EUR/USD at 1.110 and…
European diesel imports face mounting pressure from a possible US export ban, the loss of Russian and Chinese supplies and low stocks. Since late February, crude is up 46% while European diesel has doubled. Europe, importing 46% of its diesel with 40% from…
SMBC's Joseph Lavorgna projects real GDP growth easing from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3. Core PCE is forecast to fall from 3.1% to 2.3% by Q4 2027, allowing the Fed funds upper bound to be cut to…
France's 2027 budget cuts the deficit to 5% of GDP from 5.4% in 2026, the first step of consolidation. The effort is 1 pp of GDP, not 0.4 pp, since debt service and defence add 0.6 pp. One third comes from higher compulsory levies, two thirds from spending…
Equities remain supported by strong nominal growth, looser fiscal policy, the AI boom and higher defence spending, but rising oil prices and bond yields are testing that resilience. The author sees markets in a first phase where higher yields raise the bar…
The eurozone sovereign bond market faces a structural regime shift: quantitative tightening, high real rates and stalled fiscal integration leave spreads exposed to national politics and the EU's ability to share risk. Italy's r-g turns slightly positive…
ING estimates AI explains about 20% of the rise in long-dated US rates: 70% of that via productivity, 25% via issuance, 5% via spending. Higher long-end issuance pressure comes mainly from TMT corporates, with a $75bn swing in long-dated corporate versus…
US 2Q GDP was revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls rose by 90,000, while August headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged. Equities closed mixed.…
On 17 September the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote, but several hold voters said the case for tightening was building. The Bank expects inflation near 3.75% in Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, driven by energy. August CPI rose to…
The ECB raised all three policy rates by 25bp in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, citing persistent inflation and stronger growth. Euro area inflation was 3.2% y/y with core at 2.4%, while the composite PMI rose to 53.1. Money markets now price…