Federal reserve hikes 25bp suggests another to come
中文标题
美联储加息 25bp 预示还将有一次
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25bp to 3.75-4%, a unanimous decision, and its projections point to one more hike this year before holding at 4.125% through 2027. ING's base case is 'one and done' given labour slack, 3% wage growth and expected oil declines, while a resumption of Gulf energy flows would reinforce that view. ING stays bearish on long rates, seeing the 10yr yield breaking back above 5%.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/16/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · US 10Y Treasury · Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2028 · this year · January 2025
Key arguments
- The Fed hiked 25bp unanimously to 3.75-4% and its dot plot implies one more hike this year, then a long hold at 4.125% through 2027.
- ING disagrees, seeing more labour slack than the Fed: job growth averaged 31k/month from January 2025 to July 2026 and participation fell a full percentage point, while wage growth is just 3%.
- The Fed may be striking a hawkish line to build credibility with bond markets and support Treasury efforts to anchor the long end.
- ING remains bearish on long rates, expecting the 10yr yield to break back above 5% and potentially test 5.25-5.5%.
Key numbers
- Fed funds target range
- 3.75-4%
- Projected hold level through 2027
- 4.125%
- Average monthly job growth, Jan 2025-Jul 2026
- 31k
- Wage growth
- 3%
- EURUSD end-2026 target
- 1.160
Main risks
- Higher-than-expected inflation or jobs prints could bring hike expectations forward to October, where markets currently price 11bp.
- A resumption of Gulf energy flows and rapid oil declines (ING's assumption) may not materialise, keeping inflation elevated.
- Inflation remains high, as does the fiscal deficit and wider issuance, which could push long-end yields higher than expected.
Corresponding source evidence
Nonetheless, we see more labour slack than the Fed and remain a little more optimistic on the inflation backdrop.
Nonetheless, today’s decisions will “support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal”.
They then have the mid-point of the Fed’s funds target range at 3.875% for 2028 and 3.625% for end-2029 and 3.25% for the “longer run”.
· 2028
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗Loading the document…
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/16/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction