Latam Daily: Peru ’ s Economy Grows Strongly in JulyGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

拉美日报：秘鲁经济7月强劲增长 · 全球经济学

Scotiabank Economics09/16/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Peru's economy grew 3.6% y/y in July, above consensus and Scotiabank's 3.3% estimate, with 3.3% cumulative growth over 12 months. Non-primary sectors tied to domestic demand expanded nearly 5%, contributing 3.8 p.p., offsetting a ~1% contraction in primary sectors that subtracted 0.2 p.p. as Coastal El Niño intensified from weak to strong. Fishing fell 27.4% y/y and agriculture 1.2% y/y. Scotiabank forecasts Q3 growth of 3.3% and maintains 3.5% GDP growth for 2026, but risks are tilted to the downside as El Niño may reach extraordinary intensity from September 2026 to January 2027.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/16/2026
Research topic: Copper
Time horizon: 2026 · September 2026

Copper · COPPER

Key arguments

July GDP growth of 3.6% y/y beat the 2.2% Bloomberg median and Scotiabank's 3.3% estimate.
Domestic-demand non-primary sectors grew nearly 5% y/y, adding 3.8 p.p., while primary sectors fell ~1%, subtracting 0.2 p.p.
Coastal El Niño intensified from weak (March) to strong (July), driving fishing down 27.4% y/y and agriculture down 1.2% y/y.
Scotiabank projects Q3 2026 growth of 3.3%, up from 2.6% in Q2, but keeps 2026 GDP forecast at 3.5% with downside risks.

Key numbers

July GDP growth y/y: 3.6%
12-month cumulative GDP growth: 3.3%
Fishing sector growth y/y: -27.4%
Construction sector growth y/y: +9.9%
2026 GDP growth forecast: 3.5%

Main risks

Coastal El Niño is expected to reach 'Extraordinary' intensity from September 2026 to January 2027, potentially intensifying damage to primary sectors in Q4.
Fishing and agriculture weakness may persist, as anchovy migration and crop yield losses continue.
The balance of risks to Scotiabank's 3.5% 2026 GDP forecast remains tilted to the downside.

Corresponding source evidence

The result for July was slightly higher than our estimate of 3.3%, but it came in well above the 2.2% expected by the median of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The mining sub -sector (+1.1% y/y) was driven by higher copper production, supported by increased output at Antamina, one of Peru ’s largest copper mines, which has been extracting ore with higher copper content and lower zinc content.
The construction sector (+9.9% y/y) led the expansion of non -primary sectors, driven by dynamic private investment, which continues to grow at a double -digit rate across residential housing, infrastructure, mining, and energy, among other areas.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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