FOMC Hikes, Guides At Least One More To ComeGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

FOMC加息，指引至少还会有一次加息 · 全球经济

Scotiabank Economics09/16/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The FOMC unanimously raised the target range 25bps to 3.75%-4% and guided at least one more hike this year, with a large minority seeing a further 2027 move. Two-year yields rose 14bps in a bear flattener, the dollar firmed and the S&P 500 fell about 0.75%. OIS prices 100bps total tightening. Scotiabank flags possible policy error, sees BoC cover to hike soon, and notes the task forces are largely moot.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 09/16/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

The FOMC raised rates 25bps unanimously, with 16 of 18 members expecting another hike and four expecting three total this year.
Scotiabank warns this may be a policy error, arguing growth risks point lower and feedback effects will hit the dual mandate more than the Committee expects.
Warsh's hawkish tone leans on past inflation and dismisses recent core PCE progress, raising net overtightening risk.
The Fed's move gives the BoC more cover to begin hiking soon, with October a live meeting.

Key numbers

Fed funds target range: 3.75%-4.00%
2-year Treasury yield move: +14bps
10-year Treasury yield move: +8bps
OIS-implied further tightening: 75bps (100bps total)
Longer-run policy rate estimate: 3.2%

Main risks

If the hike proves a policy error, the dots understate reversal risk.
The Chair boycotts forecasts and does not view policy as restrictive, a setup for net overtightening.
Political friction is building, including Trump's calls for cuts and threats over trade, testing Fed independence.

Corresponding source evidence

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