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BoJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, the fastest three-month cadence of its tightening cycle. MUFG judges the hike lacks hawkish impact: it merely confirms the July Outlook baseline rather than responding to new upside risks. Pressure…
Société Générale argues international payments are entering a new phase where banks and market infrastructures orchestrate complementary solutions blending speed, transparency, security and compliance, while retaining human expertise at the core. Related…
The Fed hiked again, with Chair Warsh's inflation-fighting stance and the BoE's 6-3 hold at 3.75% reassuring markets. US equities rose (S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7%); 10-year Treasury yields fell 9bps to 4.93%, aided by softer oil. Brent fell 1.5% to $104 and…
The Bank of England surprised markets with a revamp of its quantitative tightening framework, pausing active gilt sales until April 2027 and retaining roughly £120bn of the longest-maturity gilts on its balance sheet. Thirty-year gilt yields dropped as much…
The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 hold-hike split, with four hold voters warning that a prolonged Middle East energy shock raises second-round inflation risks. Scotiabank expects a 25bp hike in November if energy prices stay elevated, plus…
The CNB left its policy rate at 3.75% unanimously, striking a slightly hawkish tone with risks skewed to inflation. ING shifts its baseline to a single November hike, assigning 60% probability. A punchy inflation forecast sees 2027 headline averaging 3.3% and…
TD Economics' September 2026 forecast expects the Middle East escalation and U.S.-Canada tariff dispute to keep oil and bond yields elevated, prompting an upward oil revision and additional central bank tightening. U.S. real GDP is tracking 2.8% in Q3, with…
The FOMC raised the fed funds target range to 3.75%–4.0% in September 2026, its first hike in over three years, with the median SEP participant expecting one more hike this year. Chair Warsh gave little guidance, calling the move the removal of 'a dose' of…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts euro area gross government issuance of EUR 1,476bn in 2026, down from EUR 1,330bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR 559bn and EUR 676bn including EFSF/ESM/EU. Gross supply is front-loaded, with 41% completed by April, while Italy and…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Italian gross government issuance of EUR 539bn in 2026 against EUR 445bn of redemptions, leaving EUR 93bn of net issuance, up from EUR 63bn net BTP supply in 2025. BOTs account for EUR 184bn gross, BTPs EUR 247bn, with 10-year and…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Spanish government gross issuance of EUR 285bn in 2026 (2025F: EUR 276bn), with redemptions of EUR 230bn (2025: EUR 215bn) and net issuance of EUR 54bn (2025F: EUR 61bn). Letras gross issuance rises to EUR 116bn and Bonos &…
The FOMC raised the federal funds target by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on a unanimous vote, with a hawkish message removing supply-shock language and citing a 'timelier' return to 2%. The SEP shows higher, more persistent inflation, with convergence to target delayed…
Final August eurozone HICP was revised down a tenth to 3.2% y/y, up from 2.9% in July, while core held at 2.4% y/y. Disinflation in services (3.3% to 3.0%) offset a rise in non-energy industrial goods (0.9% to 1.2%). Energy-shock pass-through remains…
The Fed hiked 25bp to a 3.75-4% funds range, a hawkish move that lifted the 2-year yield to 4.72% while the 30-year fell to 5.34%. UBS CIO keeps an Attractive view on fixed income, expects a December hike but calls market pricing of three more hikes by…
ABN AMRO expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September, citing resilient above-trend growth (1.4% q/q saar in Q2), reaccelerating inflation (1.9% y/y in July) and 32-year-high nominal wage growth. Two more hikes are seen…
The Bank of England voted 6-3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, but its tone turned hawkish. The MPC now sees inflation peaking above 4% in early 2027, up from 3.2%, and upgraded Q3 GDP growth to +0.4% QoQ. Natixis shifted its call to a 25bp…
State Street argues that fixed income can still anchor portfolios despite bear flattening in government bonds, investment-grade and high-yield spreads at multi-decade tights, and stock/bond correlation at its highest in decades. It proposes using systematic…
Energy has been a standout in 2026, supported by higher oil and gas prices, tighter supply and geopolitical risk, with strong cash flows, dividends and buybacks. Saxo Bank cautions that after the rally, quality matters more: balance-sheet strength, low…
TD Economics upgrades its 2023 outlook after a better-than-expected start to the year, but still expects sub-par momentum as peak rate impacts are yet to be felt. The failure of two U.S. regional banks removes a 50bps March hike from the table; TD embeds a…
ING expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause at its 21 September meeting, holding the base rate at 5.50%. Although inflation is still favourable, rising external inflation risk and an expected cut in the inflation target from 3% to 2% in two stages argue…