Fx daily data back in drivers seat this week
中文标题
外汇日报：本周数据重回主导地位
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The dollar's recent rally faces downside risks as markets await US September jobs data, with October FOMC hike pricing at 16bp. ING expects a consensus 90k payrolls print with possible August revisions lower, keeping hike odds above 50% but unlikely to sustain USD momentum. EUR/USD is seen stabilising above 1.140, while the RBA is expected to deliver a hawkish 25bp hike to 4.60%, supporting AUD toward 0.720 by year-end. CEE currencies remain under pressure.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/28/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · US Dollar (DXY) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- this week
Key arguments
- US jobs data, including ADP and JOLTS, will drive dollar direction; upside surprises could push October hike pricing above 20bp but are not ING's baseline.
- EUR/USD looks oversold and could stabilise above 1.140 as eurozone core inflation remains subdued, limiting ECB dovishness.
- RBA is expected to hike 25bp to 4.60% and leave the door open for more tightening, supporting AUD.
- CEE currencies face headwinds from a stronger dollar, high fuel prices and rising core rates, with the zloty expected to underperform.
Key numbers
- October FOMC hike pricing
- 16bp (peaked at 19bp)
- September payrolls consensus
- 90k
- August payrolls prior
- 162k
- Eurozone core CPI forecast
- 2.5% (up 0.1ppt)
- RBA rate hike expected
- 25bp to 4.60%
Main risks
- Another significant upside surprise in US payrolls could sustain dollar momentum and delay a pullback.
- French bond spread widening could spill over into EUR/USD downside.
- A stronger dollar, higher fuel prices and rising core rates could extend CEE currency losses.
Corresponding source evidence
Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp.
It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days.
We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow After its recent strong momentum, we see downside risks for the dollar in the next few days USD: Some tiredness in the rally?
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/28/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction