OCBC Daily Credit Snapshot 01 October 2026

Key arguments

• US data pointed to resilient growth and moderating inflation: 2Q GDP revised up to 2.2% q/q saar and September ADP payrolls up 90,000, while headline PCE slowed to 3.4% y/y and core PCE held at 3.0%.
• The initial positive reaction to softer inflation was largely reversed as investors reassessed continued economic resilience; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.2849% and the DXY was broadly unchanged.
• Credit spreads moved in different directions: US IG tightened 2bp to 80bp while US HY widened 2bp to 311bp and Global Contingent Capital widened 3bp to 221bp.
• Asia USD credit tightened, with Asia IG down 1bp to 56bp and Asia HY down 2bp to 339bp; APAC IG issuance was zero versus USD350mn in DM IG.

Corresponding source evidence

1. US Treasury yields rebounded from their intraday lows, with the 10-year yield closing at 5.2849%, while the DXY traded broadly unchanged.
2. The third estimate of 2Q GDP growth was revised higher to 2.2% q/q saar from 1.5% previously, while personal consumption growth was upgraded to 3.8%.
3. On the inflation front, headline PCE rose 0.3% m/m in August, in line with expectations, while the year-on-year rate of 3.4% came in below consensus expectations of 3.7%.