Reports are admitted only from public, source-verifiable pages. How Tlines structures a report, grouped by asset, publishing institution or topic below.
Australia's goods trade surplus narrowed to $0.5bn in August from a downwardly revised $1.4bn in July, well below market consensus for a broadly stable reading. Volatility remains concentrated in non-monetary gold, with exports up 20% and imports up 91%.…
Commonwealth Bank extended its regional branch closure moratorium to at least December 2030, keeping all 281 regional branches open. It will invest $140m in FY27 to upgrade its more than 600 branches, reduce wait times and improve access to specialist and…
US 10-year Treasury yields closed at 5.2849% after softer August PCE (headline 3.4% y-o-y vs 3.7% consensus; core steady at 3.0%) initially lifted risk appetite, but the move reversed on resilient growth: 2Q GDP revised to 2.2% and ADP payrolls at 90k.…
The report estimates September nonfarm payrolls at 60k, below the 90k consensus and the prior 162k. It expects unemployment to edge up to 4.2% on higher prime-age participation, with average hourly earnings around 0.3% m/m. Unless CPI on October 14 is broadly…
Saxo's Q4 outlook keeps risk exposure but demands more from it. With the US 10-year Treasury yield touching 5% on 14 September 2026, US headline inflation at 3.4% and Brent above $100, equity returns must be earned through profit growth and cash flow. AI…
Saxo's Q4 outlook sees three tests for equity resilience: another energy supply shock, post-GFC high sovereign yields with US 10-year near 5%, and AI's internal debate over slowing frontier advancement. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% in September.…
The US dollar remains resilient above 101 on the DXY, supported by elevated US yields despite softer PCE inflation (headline 3.4% y/y). Markets price a December Fed hike. USD/IDR hit resistance at 18,000 and pulled back, but MUFG stays cautious on IDR and…
The US dollar extended its rally, pushing the dollar index toward June's year-to-date high of 101.80, even after August core PCE inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year versus 3.3% expected, with downward revisions trimming 36bps. The three-month annualized…
MUFG's October 2026 FX outlook sees a US dollar-led world: DXY closed September up 2.0% after the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, with 10-year UST yields up 53bps. Six G10 central banks hiked, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz closure keeps energy prices elevated.…
MUFG forecasts Asian currencies to post a modest aggregate appreciation in Q4 2026, with performance highly differentiated across pairs. The quarterly outlook sees continued US dollar and energy headwinds, while Asian growth remains resilient, led by…
MUFG's calendar previews Japan data from late September to early October. Industrial production is estimated up 1.1% MoM for August, retail sales up 2.1% YoY, and housing starts up 6.4% YoY, with growth slowing on weak air-conditioner demand, high prices, and…
New Zealand dwelling consents rose 5.6% in August, taking the annual total to about 41,300, the highest since 2023, with a 12-month gain of 21.1%. The lift is concentrated in Auckland (up 19%) and Canterbury (up 35%), with much medium-density work. Westpac…
Westpac argues that persistent administered price increases—council rates, electricity, insurance—have kept New Zealand core inflation near or above 3% for five years, leaving the RBNZ with little headroom even before the recent oil spike. Because these costs…
UBS CIO argues resilient US growth, with JOLTS at a five-month low of 7.1 million but hiring up and layoffs subdued, should underpin equity gains. Soft consumer confidence in September hit its lowest since 2014, and the 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped…
The report argues that Middle East escalation and higher energy prices are pushing central banks to tighten further, while governments delay fiscal consolidation despite unsustainable public finances. Global growth has held up on AI investment, exports and…
SMBC applies LLM scoring from -1 (dovish) to +1 (hawkish) to all Fed commentary since 2009. FOMC members' latest speeches generally score above 0.5, leaning hawkish, with inflation and labor market topics most frequent. Chair Warsh's July and September press…
August real personal consumption rose a robust 0.9% m/m, leaving spending 0.8% above its pre-Covid trend, and Q3 PCE is tracking 3.7% QoQ annualized. Yet real disposable personal income is growing only 1.3% y/y amid elevated inflation, implying households are…
The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 5.25%, about 50bp higher than end-August, driven by higher real yields and Fed rate-hike repricing. A fair-value regression using ISM new orders and USD 2y5y swaption volatility shows yields deviating significantly…
US core PCE inflation rose 0.2% MoM in August, below the 0.3% consensus, with July revised down to 0.1%. The annual rate of 3.0% undershot the 3.3% forecast. Nominal spending rose 0.9% MoM as expected, but household income grew only 0.2%, cutting the savings…
Euro area September headline HICP surprised to the upside; MUFG raises its tracking estimate to 3.8%, the highest since September 2023 versus 3.2% in August. German HICP rose to 3.3%, French HICP to 3.4%, and Italian HICP jumped to 4.1%. MUFG maintains the…