US MacroeconomicsJoseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

中文标题

美国宏观经济 · Joseph Lavorgna 2026 2027 2026 2027

SMBC10/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

SMBC's Joseph Lavorgna projects real GDP growth easing from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3. Core PCE is forecast to fall from 3.1% to 2.3% by Q4 2027, allowing the Fed funds upper bound to be cut to 4.00% by Q4 2026 and 4.50% by Q4 2027. The 10-year Treasury yield is seen at 4.75% at end-2026 and 4.50% at end-2027.

Institution: SMBC
Published: 10/01/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: Not explicitly stated

Key arguments

Real GDP growth decelerates from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, with a sharp Q4 2026 slowdown to 0.7% after 5.1% in Q3.
Core PCE inflation declines from 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027, supporting gradual Fed rate cuts.
The Fed funds upper bound is projected at 4.00% by Q4 2026 and 4.50% by Q4 2027, implying a lower terminal rate than current levels.
The 10-year Treasury yield is forecast at 4.75% at end-2026 and 4.50% at end-2027.

Key numbers

Real GDP (Q4/Q4 2026): 2.3%
Real GDP (Q4/Q4 2027): 1.9%
Core PCE (Q4/Q4 2026): 3.1%
Core PCE (Q4/Q4 2027): 2.3%
Fed funds upper bound (Q4 2027): 4.50%

Main risks

Inflation may not decline as forecast, delaying Fed rate cuts and keeping rates higher.
GDP growth could be weaker than projected, especially after the sharp Q4 2026 slowdown.
The 10-year Treasury yield forecast may be inaccurate, affecting asset prices.

Corresponding source evidence

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