Threats to European diesel imports: risk of shortages ruled out for the time being, but increased risk of price rises

Key arguments

• US diesel exports, up 25% in H1 2026, have eased European tensions but squeezed the US domestic market and pushed retail prices to records.
• Any US export cut would hit Europe hard: imports cover 46% of demand and 40% of those come from the US, with little spare refining capacity.
• Short-term European shortages are ruled out: ARA stocks are low (12mn bbl) but emergency stocks cover about 60 days of consumption.
• The euro area inflation peak would be lifted by 0.1-0.6pp depending on the diesel crack-spread scenario, without changing its timing.

Corresponding source evidence

1. A particularly tight diesel market due to a shortage of buffer stocks Following the outbreak of the con flict, diesel prices did indeed see some of the sharpest rises on the oil market due to particularly tight market conditions.
2. Eurostat estimates this figure at 270 million barrels in June 2026 (stable from a year earlier), representing approximately 60 days’ worth of EU consumption. · June 2026
3. According to our base-case scenario, crude oil prices are expected to remain very high in Q4 2026 due to ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf, whilst a return to normal levels of diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East appears unlikely by that time. · Q4 2026