Chilean GDP Declines on Mining Output, While Unemployment Rate Rises Amid Job LossesGLOBAL ECONOMICS

中文标题

智利GDP因矿业产出下降而下滑，失业率因失业增加而上升 · 全球经济

Scotiabank Economics10/01/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Chilean August GDP fell 1.0% y/y, driven by a 17.4% mining decline, making a 2026 contraction between -0.5% and 0.0% highly likely. Non-mining activity remains resilient, projected to expand 0.5%-1.0% despite supply shocks. Unemployment rose to 9.6% (9.4% SA), above the new NAIRU range, with 81k annual job losses concentrated in manufacturing and investment-linked services.

Institution: Scotiabank Economics
Published: 10/01/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: year-end 2026 · 2026

Key arguments

August GDP fell 1.0% y/y, below consensus and Scotiabank's forecast, due to a historic 17.4% y/y mining decline.
Non-mining sectors show resilience, with commerce and services recovering to April-May levels, but face supply-side shocks including El Niño.
The unemployment rate rose to 9.6% (9.4% SA), surpassing consensus and moving further above the Central Bank's NAIRU range of 8.2%-8.8%.
Annual formal employment fell by 88k, with weakness in manufacturing and investment-related services comparable only to 2009 and 2021 crises.

Key numbers

August GDP growth (y/y): -1.0%
Mining activity (y/y): -17.4%
2026 GDP growth forecast range: -0.5% to 0.0%
Unemployment rate (rolling quarter): 9.6%
NAIRU range (Central Bank): 8.2%-8.8%

Main risks

Mining output could remain depressed due to climate disruptions, operational issues at Codelco, and rising costs, further dragging GDP.
Strategic underproduction by private miners ahead of the 2027 corporate tax cut could delay recovery.
Continued weakness in investment and formal employment may keep unemployment above NAIRU, dampening consumption.

Corresponding source evidence

Following this release, while it is now highly likely that Chile will end 2026 with negative GDP growth (between -0.5% and 0.0%), below the Central Bank’s latest baseline scenario (0.25% -0.75%), non-mining GDP continues to regain momentum. · year-end 2026
Indeed, the projected 0.5%-1.0% expansion in non-mining activity for 2026 incorporates negative effects linked to the El Niño phenomenon across fishing, manufacturing, and transportation, among other sectors. · 2026
Compared with the same rolling quarter a year earlier, formal employment fell by 88k jobs, only partially offset by the limited and steadily weakening creation of informal jobs (7k).

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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